Projected changes in the energy release component under climate change in northwest predictive services areas : a report to the Bureau of Land Management Oregon-Washington State Office

By

Dalton, Meghan M., , author

Abatzoglou, John T.
Evers, Louisa, , author
Hegewisch, Katherine, , author
Oregon Climate Change Institute
United States. Bureau of Land Management. Oregon State Office.

Type

Book

Material

Published material

Publication info

[Corvallis, Oregon], Oregon Climate Change Institute, 2015

Notes

"January 2015"--Cover

Fire management agencies in the United States (US) use fire danger indices from National Fire Danger Rating Systems as decision-support tools. A widely used index tracking seasonal dryness in the western US is the Energy Release Component (ERC). Historically, ERC percentile thresholds provide information on the potential for large and uncontrollable fires, but climate change may alter the utility of specific percentiles in identifying large fire potential in the future. We investigated two management-focused questions: 1) how has seasonal ERC and percentile values changed, and 2) how will ERC and the number of high fire danger days change under projected future climatic conditions. We calculated historical and future ERC for Predictive Service Areas in Oregon and Washington using station observations and downscaled climate models, respectively. ERC and frequency of high fire danger days during the fire season increased for most PSAs over the 1981-2010 period. These increases were consistent with projected increases in ERC and high fire danger days using climate projections, with the most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season. Irrespective of changes in vegetation and fire management, these changes in fire danger have and will continue to increase wildfire exposure across the region.

Cover title.

Subjects

Climatic changes , Energy Release Component (ERC) , Fire risk assessment , Forest fire forecasting , Forest management , Mathematical models , Northwest, Pacific , Pacific Northwest

Call Number

SD421.36 .D35 2015

Language

English

Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5962/bhl.title.154506
OCLC: 949783165