ESTIMATES OP NUMBERS. 89 



of pups was between one-fifth and one-sixth of what it was in the period from 1871 

 to 1880. The breeding herds of the same years bear the same relation to each other. 

 The present total of breeding females on the islands is about 130,000. We may infer, 

 therefore, that in the period 1871-1880 there were about five times as many, or in the 

 neighborhood of 000,000 breeding females. 



ESTIMATE OF NONBREEDING SEALS. 



Of the bachelors or nonbreeding seals no satisfactory estimate has been or can be 

 made, but it is evident from the data now available that about one half the seals are 

 lost in the first migration at sea, while the number is still further reduced to one- 

 third, possibly to less, before the age of 3 years is reached. From this we can in a 

 rough way calculate that in connection with the quota of 20,000 bachelors we have a 

 total of approximately 400,000 animals, including breeding females, their young, and 

 all other classes. This is a ratio of 20 to 1 between the entire herd and the herd of 

 killable seals, and would, when applied to the herd of 1871-1880, give a total of 

 about 2,000,000 animals of all classes. 



THE RECONSTRUCTION STILL ONLY AN ESTIMATE. 



In putting forward this reconstruction of past conditions we are well aware that 

 it is still only an estimate. We have, however, in making it the advantage of 

 definitely known premises to start from, and the results harmonize fully with the 

 conditions of our problem. 



COMPLETED ESTIMATE. 



Assuming the figures we have arrived at, we find that they work out in harmony 

 with the recorded facts of the quota for this period. Thus, with a birthrate of 600,000 

 pups, we may assume one-half, or 300,000, to survive to the age of 1 year, and 200,000 

 to the age of 3 years. One half of these were males and were killed to fill the quota. 

 We know, of course, that not all the surviving males were killed, and therefore that 

 either the birthrate of pups was greater by 25,000 to 50,000 than the one assumed, or 

 that the ratio of loss was slightly less than one-half and one-third. The computation 

 is not intended to be exact, and can not be made so, but it is sufficient to show the 

 direction in which the truth lies, aud is conclusive enough to show that during the 

 time of the herd's greatest expansion its breeding females numbered about 600,000, a 

 figure sufficiently exact for all practical purposes. 



Adding an equal number of pups annually and 20,000 breeding bulls, we have a 

 total of 1,400,000 " breeding seals and young," for the period in which Mr. Elliott 

 estimates 3,193,420.' 



'We must insist that the calculations iu the preceding paragraphs are intended merely as rough 

 approximations to show the early condition of the herd. Such discrepancies as exist between these 

 figures and those tentatively put forth in our Preliminary Report for 1896 are the result of more 

 mature deliberation. The attempt of the British Colonial Office (see letter of Mr. Wingfield to 

 Foreign Office, Corr. on Seal Fisheries, Brit. Blue Book, No. 4, September, 1897, p. 121) to make capita, 

 out of them is wholly unwarranted. The statements both here and in the former report are couchec. 

 in sufficiently guarded language to leave no doubt in the mind of the candid reader. We merely 

 wish to show that since the herd formerly yielded 100,000 skins annually and now yields but 20,000, 

 it must once have been approximately five times as large as now. On the other hand we infer that it 

 could not under the circumstances have been seven or ten times as large. These figures represent a! 

 attempt, more or less imperfect, owing to the complexity of the problem, to give concrete expressioi 

 to this undeniable fact. 



