THE COUNT OF PUPS. 101 



THE VALUE OF THE ESTIMATE. 



The weakness of the foregoing estimate lies in the figures for the nonbreeding 

 animals. It is worked out merely because such an estimate is asked for in our 

 instructions. The figures, however, satisfy the conditions and we believe approximate 

 the truth as closely as it can be reached at the present time. For the estimate of 

 breeding animals, which is really the important thing, we have no apology to offer. 

 It is practically exact. 



To eliminate the last element of uncertainty in arriving at a full enumeration of 

 the herd it is only necessary to continue the census of the breeding herd each year 

 for a certain period. Knowing the number of pups born in 1896, in 1899 it will be 

 possible from the quota of that year to tell with reasonable exactness the number 

 which survive to killable age. With each succeeding year the data will become more 

 exact, and in the future the Government can know exactly what quota to expect and 

 what the condition of the hauling as well as of the breeding grounds is. Given the 

 birth rate of any year and the quota of three years later can be determined. In 

 like manner from the quota of any year the birth rate of three years previous can be 

 determined. 



THE TRUE BASIS OF ENUMERATION. 



The only reliable basis of enumeration has been found and demonstrated. This 

 is a count of live pups. The pups as a class are fixed in their places on the rookery 

 for the first six weeks of their lives. Their mothers may come and go, but they remain. 

 It is not necessary that all the pups on all the rookeries be counted. It would be 

 impossible to make a count on the larger rookeries. But if some typical rookery, as 

 Kitovi, be counted each year to obtain the average size of harem, and then the harems 

 be counted on all the rookeries about the 15th of July, the average harem of Kitovi 

 being applied to them, a census exact enough for every purpose can be obtained. 

 From this census and the quota itself the completed estimate for the nonbreeding 

 animals can be made up. 



