114 THE FUR SEALS OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. 



THE QUOTA OF 1*97 HARDER TO (JKT. 



It must be evident from a study of these figures that the quota of 1890 was in 

 every way easier to procure than that for 1897. In the latter year the driving was 

 continued ten days longer on St. Paul Island and sixteen days longer on St. George. 

 The lowest percentage of animals killed in any drive on St. Paul in 1S96 was ;>5; in 

 1897 it was lowered to 15 per cent. On St. George the lowest point reached in 1896 

 \\;is 17 per cent; in 1897 it was 12 per cent. The reduction in the percentage of seals 

 killed marks the degree of exhaustion of the hauling grounds. 



THE QUOTA A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE BREEDING HERD. 



This comparison of the bachelor herd of 1896 and 1897 is a direct measure of the 

 condition of the breeding herd in the years 1893 and 1894 when these killable seals 

 were born. It is not a measure of the condition of the breeding herd of 1896 and 1897. 

 To understand why the loss in the breeding herd for the season of 1894 as compared 

 with that for 1893 was nearly 30 per cent, while the present rate of decrease is but 

 15 per cent, it is only necessary to consider that in 1894 pelagic sealing was resumed 

 in Bering Sea after the modus vivendi and the herd that year suffered its greatest loss, 

 amounting to 60,000 seals, whereas in 1893 its loss was only 30,000. This fully accounts 

 for the great difference between the decrease for the season of 1897 in the fur-seal herd 

 as measured by the product of its hauling grounds and as measured by its birth rate 

 for the same season. The pelagic catch which affected the breeding herd between 

 1896 and 1897 was about one-half as great as that which affected the breeding herd 

 between 1893 and 1894. In other words, the pelagic catch of 1894 was double that 

 of 1893, while the catch of 1897 was about one half that of 1896. ' 



THK </rnTA <>F |s7 AM) THE I'AKIS KK<;r I.ATIONS. 



Not only does this marked decrease in the quota emphasize the fact of decline in 

 the herd, but it fixes more clearly than ever the responsibility upon pelagic sealing, 

 and forcibly condemns the regulations of the Paris Award, in the opening year of the 

 operation of which the loss which it indicates was sustained. 



THE TOTAL DECLINE IN THE HERD. 



In this comparison of the quota of killable seals with the breeding nerd of the 

 year in which its individuals were born, we find the necessary basis for an estimate of 

 the total decline which the herd lias suffered. The killable seals found in 1897 bear a 

 direct relation to the breeding herd of 1894. In like manner the quota of 100,000 skins 

 taken in 1880, for example, bears a direct, and we may suppose, proportionate rela 

 tion to the breeding herd of 1897. The breeding herd which could without difficulty 

 furnish 100,000 killable seals in 1SSO must have been at least five times as great as the 

 herd which can to-day with difficulty furnish 1*0,000. And when we take into account 

 the increased effort required to secure the latter quota, we may assume that the total 

 decline in the herd really lies between four-fifths and five-sixths of its maximum si/e. 



'This fact is overlooked by Professor Thompson when lie asserts "that the ratio of tin- 

 (quota) of 1897 to that of 1X96 in not a fair proportionate measure of, but is largely in excess of the 

 actual diminution of the general herd.'' (Report of 1X!7, p. 11.) 



