158 THE FUR SEALS OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. 



diminished accession of breeding 3-year-olds. In other words, the yearly increment 

 of 30,000 could not be maintained, and as a matter of fact the taking of 12,000 

 females would cause the herd to decline. 



THE SECONDARY LOSS OF PUPS. 



We can estimate approximately this secondary loss. For the 12,000 females 

 killed an equal number of uuborn young are destroyed, and if one-half of them an- 

 killed during the summer, 0,000 additional young will starve; in all, 18,000 young are 

 lost. Mut as only one-third of them would naturally survive to the age of 3 years, ami 

 but one half of these would be breeders, the total loss would be about 3,000. This, 

 at least, must be deducted from the 12,000, leaving 9,000 females which can be taken 

 from the herd and still leave it in a state of equilibrium. The abstraction of females, 

 therefore, which the herd of 180,000 breeding females can stand without declining, is 

 not to exceed 5 per cent. 



We do not put this percentage forward as absolute. Its value rests solely upon 

 the percentage of young which survive to the age of 3 years. We have assumed that 

 one-third so survive, and this is probably a maximum, but for the purposes of the 

 calculation it will answer. 



To determine whether or not the effect of pelagic sealing is such as to warrant the 

 supposition that a state of equilibrium has been or is likely to be reached soon, we 

 have only to refer to The pelagic catch for the year 1896. The summer catch of 1896 

 in Bering Sea numbered 29,500, of which 84 per cent were females. The spring catch 

 of the same year was 14,400, of which 93 per cent were females, making in all 38,000 

 females from a herd of about 160,000, approximately 24 per cent, with additional loss 

 to appear in 1899 from the destruction of young life. 



PELAGIC CATCH STILL INVOLVES 16 PER CENT OF ALL FEMALES. 



In view of the heavy falling off which pelagic sealing has undergone in 1897, we 

 may carry out the computation for this season also. There were taken in the spring 

 of 1897 off the northwest coast 7,857, of which 93 per cent, or 7,300, were females. In 

 Bering Sea 16,454 were taken, of which, using the percentage of 1896, which is low, 84 

 per cent, or 13,800 were females, making in all for 1897 21,000 females. This for 

 a herd of 130,000 is Hi per cent. It is evident that pelagic sealing must still tall 

 considerably before equilibrium is reached. 



IT MUST FALL TO ONE-THIRD BEFORE EQUILIBRIUM COMES. 



In short it would appear that the pelagic catch must fall to about one-third its 

 present size before the decline in the herd ceases. It is doubtful whether such a 

 reduction will result. The haunts of the seals are too convenient. The same vessels 

 may not go out each year, but enough will be ready to risk the chance of a remniu-r- 

 ative catch to keep the herd on the down grade. The very reduction of the fleet 

 in one season will stimulate the business for the next, each vessel hoping that its 

 neighbors will drop out, thus leaving a clear field. It is probable that so long as the 

 herd exists there will be a sufficient number of adventurous spirits to prey upon it 

 and continue its decline. The history of the repeated unsuccessful attempts to secure 

 seals on the rookeries of the south seas fully illustrate what may be expected in the 

 north. If the spirit of adventure is sufficiently strong to lead to the fitting out of a 

 schooner, as was done in 1897, to visit the Galapagos Islands on the possibility of 



