CHAPTER X V I 1 I . 



THE FUTURE OF THE FUR-SEAL HERD. 



A RECONSIDERATION OF THE QUESTION. 



With the season of 1898 will close the five-year trial period of the regulations 

 of the Paris Tribunal of Arbitration. These regulations were, as we have seen, 

 formulated for the "protection and preservation of the fur seals.' 1 In the treaty 

 of 1892, under which the arbitration was convened, "the preservation of the fur 

 seal in, or habitually resorting to,* Bering Sea was expressly designated as part of 

 the object of the convention. Furthermore, in the declarations which the tribunal 

 made to the respective governments concerned we find that "in view of the critical 

 condition to which it now appears certain that the race of fur seals is reduced" it 

 was recommended that all killing of seals, whether on laud or at sea, be prohibited 

 for an agreed period of years. From these references, it must be clear that the 

 avowed purpose and intention of the Tribunal of Arbitration was to accomplish 

 the protection of the fur-seal herd. It is equally clear that the responsibility for 

 carrying this purpose was placed upon the nations concerned in the arbitration and 

 which accepted its decision. 



A BASIS FOR THE REOPENING OF THE SUBJECT. 



In approaching a reconsideration of the regulations the two nations have now 

 a much clearer knowledge of the conditions surrounding the problem. As a result 

 of the recent conference of American, British, and Canadian fur-seal experts at 

 Washington, an agreement as to facts was reached sufficiently broad and conclusive 

 to show the true condition of the herd, the cause of its decline, and the remedy. 

 This joint agreement will be found in full in Appendix II of this report. We may 

 here briefly summarize its conclusions: 



FINDINGS OF FACT. 

 THE DECLINE. 



First, it is found that the fur-seal herd has declined largely from its condition in 

 1884 down to the date of the inspection of the rookeries in 1897. This means that 

 the herd has continued to decline under the regulations. The decrease is stated as 

 equal to from two-thirds to four-fifths of its maximum size. Between the seasons of 

 1896 and 1897 the rate of decline is found from the most" reliable data to be between 

 9 and 12 per cent. For this same period the pelagic catch has itself declined fully 

 one-half. 



SLOW BATE OF INCREASE IN THE HERD. 



Second, it is found that the natural death rate among the seals, especially the 

 young, is high, so that but one-half to one-third of those born attain the age of three 

 years. This means that the rate of increase in the fur-seal herd under the best of 

 conditions is slow. 



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