QUESTIONS RELATING TO THE QUOTA. 193 



yet ascertained. They should have received first attention, and they should have been 

 determined twenty years ago. These are : First, the proportion of males necessary to 

 attend to the needs of the breeding female herd; second, the proportion of young 

 seals which survive to the age of 3 years. 



Without knowing the real facts in regard to either of these matters, the Govern- 

 ment assumed to fix a definite quota and to maintain it through twenty years. As a 

 matter of fact, we know from the history of the herd that for the greater part of this 

 time this quota was too small and that a large additional product of male life was 

 wasted. For another part of the time this quota was too great, and this led to waste 

 of another sort by involving the premature killing of the yearling and 2-year-old 

 bachelors. Since 1894 the Government, acting on the advice of its agents, who 

 clearly did not understand the situation, has each year assumed to fix in advance 

 what quota should be taken. 



THE FIXING OF THE QUOTA. 



Let us take as a concrete example the quota of 1897. As a matter of fact, the 

 number was left indefinite and at the discretion of the commission, so that the full 

 product of the hauling grounds was taken in so far as that was possible. But suppose 

 the quota had been fixed at 15,000. In that case the loss to the Government in tax 

 under its lease would have been $65,000; or had it been fixed at 20,000, the loss 

 would still have been $9,000. One or the other of these figures would certainly have 

 been chosen had the advice of anyone relying on such data as were available in 1896 

 been taken. The quota actually taken in 1897 was 20,890. 



So long as mere personal judgment is trusted in these matters any quota that 

 may be fixed in advance must be a very conservative one. The Government must 

 avoid, on the one hand, the too close killing of the male life. On the other hand, 

 it must see to it, at least in the present depleted condition of the fur seal catch, 

 whether 011 laud or at sea, that the full product of its bachelor herd is gathered and 

 utilized. It must therefore face this problem : If in fixing the quota the figure be 

 placed too low, say 1,000 below the number of skins which could be taken with 

 impunity, the Government loses $10,000 in tax, and the lessees an equal, if not greater, 

 amount. If the margin of uncertainty is greater or less, the loss is proportionately 

 increased or diminished. It would manifestly be disastrous were the limit of safety 

 systematically exceeded by a like number. 



QUESTIONS WHICH REQUIRE CONTINUOUS AND EXPERT STUDY. 



The questions involved in the safe and intelligent gathering of the annual quota 

 are of such a nature that they can not be determined in a single season, nor in two, 

 possibly not definitely in five; nor can the matter rest when they are once determined. 

 The investigations of the past two seasons have, however, laid the foundation for 

 this work. If the census of the breeding herd, begun in 1896 and improved upon in 

 1897, is continued for two or three seasons it can be made practically exact. The 

 birth rate of the present season is accurately enough established. If, as can safely be 

 done, the full product of the hauling grounds is taken from now until the season of 

 1900, it can then be determined with reasonable accuracy, from the quota of 3-year-old 

 males of that year, what percentage of the young survive to killable and breeding age. 

 15184 13 



