THE CHANCES OF DEATH 85 



that of an individual born in the United States in 1910. 

 The difference amounts to approximately 18 years! 

 Probably the actual difference was not so great as this, 

 as these early life tables are known to be inaccurate at 

 the ends of the lifespan, particularly at the beginning. 

 At 10 years of age, the difference in expectation of life 

 had been reduced to just over 12 years; at age 20, to a 

 little less than 10 years ; at age 30 to 7-% years ; at age 

 50 to just over 4 years; at age 70 to l- 1 /^ years. At 

 age 80 the lines have crossed, but owing to the inade- 

 quate methods, of graduation used by this pioneer actuary, 

 together with the paucity and probably somewhat inac- 

 curate character of his material, no stress is to be laid 

 upon the crossing of the lines, or upon the superior 

 expectation of life at the high ages in the seventeenth 

 century material. What the diagram shows is that the 

 expectation of life at early ages was vastly inferior 

 in the seventeenth century to what it is now, while at 

 advanced ages the chances of living were substantially 

 the same. Let us defer the further discussion of the 

 meaning and explanation of this curious fact until we 

 have examined some further data, 



Figure 20 compares the expectation of life in England 

 at the middle of the eighteenth century, or about a cen- 

 tury later than the last, with present conditions in the 

 United States. Again we see that the expectation at 

 birth was greatly inferior then to what it is now, but the 

 difference is not so great as it was a century earlier, 

 amounting to but 12-% years instead of the 18 we found 

 before. Further it is seen that, just as before, the expec- 

 tations come closer together with advancing age. By 

 the time age 45 middle life is reached the expectation 

 of life was substantially the same in the eighteenth cen- 



