146 COMMERCE AND EXCHANGE 



made along Republican lines. With the apparent willingness of 

 some of the more influential leaders to entertain some plan for a 

 gradual revision, so moderate as not to affect existing industries, 

 there is still a possibility that something may be done in this direc- 

 tion. 



As the extent and direction of this revision, should it ever be under- 

 taken, will necessarily be determined by purely political forces, 

 economists are interested mainly in the method by which it may be 

 undertaken. Economic writers have frequently pointed out that 

 the methods pursued in the past for revising the tariff were unsatis- 

 factory because of the failure to collect, in a thorough and systematic 

 manner, the data necessary for a revision. Few, if any, of the 

 leaders now in Congress have even a modicum of the knowledge 

 necessary for a revision of the tariff. This may be said without any 

 disparagement, for, in fact, there are few men in the whole country 

 who have that knowledge. The precise effect of each of the duties 

 on some four thousand different articles covered in the fourteen great 

 schedules of the tariff cannot be ascertained by a hearing conducted 

 by a congressional committee in the hurry of preparing proposed 

 legislation, and at which only interested parties are examined. Only 

 by an extended and painstaking investigation along strictly scien- 

 tific lines can the effect of the present tariff or of proposed changes 

 be ascertained. The complex interrelations which arise from the 

 changes in the relative importance of different exports and imports 

 as affected by different duties offer problems which are among the 

 most difficult in the whole field of economic science. Temporary 

 commissions appointed to gather data desired for the information 

 of Congress when a tariff revision was under way have failed, not 

 merely because political considerations have forced Congress to 

 disregard their recommendations, but because their recommenda- 

 tions based on a brief study under pressure of temporary demands 

 could not be altogether sound and well matured. The following 

 principles may be laid down as generally admitted by impartial 

 authorities: (1) On account of the vast size of the interests involved, 

 sudden changes in the tariff are dangerous to the welfare of the 

 country; (2) for the same reason violent changes are equally danger- 

 ous; (3) changes should, therefore, be gradual and announced long 

 in advance; (4) to ascertain the exact effect of present duties or to 

 estimate the probable effect of proposed changes requires a careful 

 study of each of the industries or branches of trade affected, not only 

 in this country, but in other countries whose goods are affected. 

 If these four points be granted, then no exigencies can arise which 

 should be allowed to prevent what the nature of the work to be 

 done looking to a revision requires, namely, a long and careful inves- 

 tigation of every possible effect of the tariff. 



