54 ECONOMIC THEORY 



Here, again, is an issue of fact which can be decided only by a 

 broad generalization following a difficult study of statistics. The 

 generalization that can so be made will furnish a law of accumulation, 

 - an important part of the theory of economic dynamics. 



It is a question whether the march of invention will be accelerated 

 or retarded by the growth of wealth which results from it, and 

 whether this third basis of prosperity is self-accelerating or self- 

 retarding. This problem is even more complex than the former 

 one. The influences that will decide the issue are many arid varied 

 and have been little studied. If a great accumulation of wealth 

 involves a growth of monopolies and a gradual extinction of compe- 

 tition, it will work unfavorably on the improvement of economic 

 methods. In the hands of secure monopolies industry would prob- 

 ably stagnate. Does the mechanical progress of the present day 

 in itself tend in this direction? It is an important question, but 

 is only one part of the larger question, Whether the principle of 

 monopoly is becoming supreme, and whether competition is on the 

 road to extinction. The answering of these questions will require 

 that we attain a law of progress in both the technique of industry 

 and in the forms of its organization. Theoretical and practical alike 

 must the study be which will yield it. A tentative conclusion must 

 be verified by an elaborate study in the domain of fact. 



We have cited only three of the problems which progress presents 

 and have, therefore, only skirted the edge of the field of economic 

 dynamics within which, I believe, the chief work of the future will 

 lie. The problems which we have cited afford illustrations of the 

 general truth that economic study will, in its new domain, afford no 

 ground for the charge that it breaks away from the domain of fact. 

 Far, indeed, will it be from being a transcendental philosophy, a 

 product of mere ratiocination, or a system evolved from the inner 

 consciousness of a recluse. Facts will lie at the bottom of it, and 

 much needed guidance in dealing with modern problems will be the 

 immediate fruit of it. The new economic science, as statesmen 

 apprehend it, will have some effect on law-making, and as the people 

 will ultimately apprehend it, will have more. Some conception of 

 the laws of progress will, of necessity, take form in the popular mind. 

 Inevitably will each thinking man try to perceive what forces are 

 impelling us, whither we are moving, and whether we can control the 

 movement. The invitation which the age extends to its economic 

 students is to help men of the time to exercise such control and show 

 in what direction the movement should be turned. The age needs 

 charts for its practical guidance. To fail to furnish them would 

 bring economists into merited discredit, and to succeed in doing 

 it will require a great extension of economic theory. Both the value 

 of the science and the recognition it will receive will be in proportion 



