THE PROBLEMS OF TRANSPORTATION 101 



long haul definitely assured may be the staple food-supply, which 

 to-day, in the form of grain, or its derivative, beef, forms perhaps 

 one third of the traffic of our carriers. 



Are any influences yet discernible of the progress of industrial 

 specialization upon the character of transportation in older Euro- 

 pean countries? It would be of great interest to hear from our 

 foreign delegates. 



One of the most interesting general problems for the student of 

 transportation concerns the effect of development of facilities for 

 the carriage of goods upon territorial division of labor, and the rela- 

 tive interdependence of regions or populations upon one another 

 for products. Marshall, the great English economist, thus puts it: 

 " Speaking generally ... a lowering of freights tends to make 

 each locality buy more largely from a distance what it requires, and 

 this tends to concentrate particular industries in special localities." 

 There should be comfort in this principle for the practical railroad 

 man. It means several things for him. It means with the growth 

 of a country, let us say the United States, not only an increase in 

 the volume of traffic far more rapid than the increase of population, 

 but also at the same time it implies an ever-augmenting proportion, 

 not only of long-distance traffic, but also of high-grade freight. The 

 first of these probabilities seems to be justified by the results of the 

 decade of 1902. The average ton-mileage of the railways of 

 the United States for the three years up to and including 1892 

 was 82,000,000,000. Ten years later the corresponding figure was 

 148,600,000,000 tons of freight hauled one mile. The increase in 

 freight traffic was upwards of 80 per cent. During the same time 

 the population increased about 20 per cent. Thus the volume of 

 traffic during a decade increased about four times as fast as the 

 population. That something like this proportionate rate of growth 

 will continue can scarcely be doubted. Let us assume it as assured. 

 The problem for discussion is not as to its volume, but as to the 

 precise character which this increase in traffic will assume. If 

 Marshall, expressing the orthodox view, be right, this increment will 

 progressively rise both in the length of haul and in character, 

 as specialization in agriculture, mining, and manufactures 

 develops. 



Two economic forces are in continual opposition in any country. 

 Territorial division of labor, the specialization and localizing of 

 industry, mean an increasing dependence of men and communities 

 upon their neighbors, close at hand, or perhaps on the other side of 

 the globe. The trend in this direction entails an exchange, not only 

 of raw materials, but of a larger and larger proportion of finished 

 products. Even food staples, grain and cattle, are not carried 

 long distances in the raw, as formerly, but largely in the manu- 



