44 Chapter I. 



He insisted that the drift was essentially determined by 

 the prevailing winds : 



" As to the probable direction of the drift, the Fram, 

 starting from near the mouth of the Lena River, may 

 expect to meet the main pack not farther north than 

 about latitude 76 30'. I doubt her getting farther north 

 before she is beset, but taking an extreme case, and 

 giving her 60 miles more, she will then only be in the 

 same latitude as Cape Chelyuskin, 730 miles from the 

 Pole, and about 600 miles from my supposed limit of the 

 effective homeward carrying ocean current. After a close 

 study of all the information we possess, I think the wind 

 will be more likely to drift her towards the west than 

 towards the east. With an ice-encumbered sea north, of 

 her, and more open water or newly-made ice to the south- 

 ward, the chances are small for a northerly drift, at all 

 events at first, and afterwards I know of no natural forces 

 that will carry the vessel in any reasonable time much 

 farther from the Siberian coast than the Jeannette was 

 carried, and during the whole of this time, unless pro- 

 tected by newly discovered lands, she will be to all intents 

 and purposes immovably sealed up in the pack, and 

 exposed to its well-known dangers. There is no doubt 

 that there is an ocean connection across the area proposed 

 to be explored." 



In one point, however, Nares was able to declare him- 

 self in agreement with me. It was the idea " that the 

 principal aim of all such voyages is to explore the un- 



