GUESSING THE TEMPERATURE 281 



man may often give one a surprise before the coffee has 

 had its effect. In this respect the guessing was an 

 excellent thing; it took up everyone's attention, and 

 diverted the critical moments. Each man's entrance 

 was awaited with excitement, and one man was not 

 allowed to make his guess in the hearing of the next 

 that would undoubtedly have exercised an influence. 

 Therefore they had to speak as they came in, one by one. 

 ' Now, Stubberud, what's the temperature to-day?" 

 Stubberud had his own way of calculating, which I 

 never succeeded in getting at. One day, for instance, 

 he looked about him and studied the various faces. 

 ' It isn't warm to-day," he said at last, with a great 

 deal of conviction. I could immediately console him 

 with the assurance that he had guessed right. It was 

 - 69 F. The monthly results were very interesting. 

 So far as I remember, the best performance the compe- 

 tition could show in any month was eight approximately 

 correct guesses. A man might keep remarkably close 

 to the actual temperature for a long time, and then 

 suddenly one day make an error of 25. It proved that 

 the winner's mean temperature agreed within a few 

 tenths of a degree with the actual mean temperature of 

 the month, and if one took the mean of all the com- 

 petitors' mean temperatures, it gave a result which, 

 practically speaking, agreed with the reality. It was 

 especially with this object in view that this guessing 

 was instituted. If later on we should be so unlucky as 



