A STATISTICAL STUDY OF EMINENT MEN. 377 



on by the rule of thumb, not because this is the best way, but because 

 we lack the knowledge to prescribe a better way. The struggle for 

 existence, careless of the individual, proceeds with reckless waste of life, 

 and it is only the fit that survives, and not what we regard as the best. 

 The Chinese civilization of the age of Confucius was more stable than 

 that of classical Greece. The progress to our present civilization may 

 have depended largely on the comparatively few men who have guided 

 it, and the civilization we hope to have may depend on a few men. 

 Can we not with the knowledge we have and with the knowledge we 

 should acquire do more to produce such men, to select them, to train 

 them and to use them? 



We can not perhaps apply the methods of horticulture to society, 

 nor carry Plato's Eepublic into effect. But great men tend to be pro- 

 portional in numbers to the total populations producing them and to 

 the average of the stock. If we can improve the stock by eliminating the 

 unfit or by favoring the endowed if we give to those who have and 

 take away from those who have not even that which they have we can 

 greatly accelerate and direct the course of evolution. If the total popu- 

 lation, especially of the well endowed, is larger, we increase the number 

 of great men. We should make sure that all are given such preliminary 

 education and opportunity that none fail through lack of these. Lastly 

 great men and also the well endowed should be so placed that their 

 abilities are not spent on trivial or selfish ends. 



We may have still stocks that are immature the Slavs, the Czechs 

 and the Scandinavians and there is a possibility of vitality in the 

 negroes. But we have finally broken the links between us and the lower 

 animals. When our stock is exhausted, when there are no longer varia- 

 tions towards what we regard as advance, then for thousands of years 

 the human race may be dependent on the social tradition now set. We 

 are perhaps beginning to fail in art and in poetry, but for a century 

 or more science and its applications will probably be at their maximum. 

 What is accomplished during this short period must be either the 

 foundation for a new stock or the endowment policy for a long old age. 





