TEE PROGRESS OF SCIENCE. 



5 6 9 



tion. The age of marriage of men of 

 the upper classes in Copenhagen, with 

 mean families of 4.5 was over 32, 

 whereas it appears that the profes- 

 sional classes in the United States 

 marry at an earlier age than this. 



It is surely a serious problem when 

 the more civilized races tend not to 

 reproduce themselves. It is difficult of 

 explanation by the laws of heredity and 

 natural selection. We may assume 

 that in the lower animals the number 

 of offspring is most favorable for the 

 survival of the race. In man there 

 may be a selective death rate tending 

 to reduce large families, but it does 

 not appear to be an important factor. 

 One quarter of the married population 

 produces one half of the next genera- 

 tion, and if fertility is inheritable or 

 correlated with inheritable traits the 

 size of families should increase rapidly. 

 If there were a complete correlation be- 

 tween fertility in mother and daughter, 

 the size of families would be doubled 

 in the fifth generation. It appears 

 that physiological fertility is held in 

 check by prudential restraint, but it is 

 not clear why the psychological factors 

 are not subject to natural selection and 

 social tradition. Those who would 

 have large families should supplant 

 those who would not. 



We reproduce from Professor Pear- 

 son's ' Chances of Death ' two diagrams. 

 The first is based largely on 2,279 mar- 

 riages of a Connecticut quaker family, 

 to which a skew frequency curve is 

 fitted. The modal family, or most fre- 

 quent family, falls between two and 

 three; the median family, or the family 

 of such size that there are as many 

 larger as smaller, is 3.29; the mean or 

 average family is 4.22, and the range 

 or maximum family is 22.5. The sec- 

 ond curve, for 1842 families of the pro- 

 fessional and upper classes in Denmark, 

 shows a somewhat higher fertility. 

 Both curves indicate an artificial limi- 

 tation in the deficiency, as compared 

 with the theoretical curve, of families 

 of five and six; and this would prob- 



ably be much more marked in French 

 or in recent Anglo-Saxon families. 

 There is indeed urgent need of further 

 investigation into the facts of the birth 

 rate. Applied science may have at the 

 end of the present century problems 

 more pressing than the increase of the 

 means of subsistence; there must be 

 people to subsist. 



THE RHODES SCHOLARSHIPS. 



The scholars to be appointed under 

 the terms of the will of the late Cecil 

 Rhodes will go into residence at Ox- 

 ford next year, and the best methods 

 for selecting them are now being con- 

 sidered. The Prussian ministry of edu- 

 cation has addressed a letter to the 

 Oxford colleges asking information as 

 to the reception of the fifteen scholars 

 to be nominated by the German em- 

 peror. It is assumed that students 

 will go to Oxford direct from the gym- 

 nasium, and it is asked whether the 

 Abiturienten-Zeugnis which admits to 

 the German universities will be ac- 

 cepted. Among other things infor- 

 mation is wanted as to whether stu- 

 dents may pursue studies preparatory 

 to the professions and whether scholars 

 may be appointed for a shorter period 

 than three years. 



Dr. Parkin, of the Toronto Gram- 

 mar School, who was himself a colonial 

 student at Oxford, has been commis- 

 sioned to secure information for the 

 use of the executors in framing a work- 

 able plan for American and colonial 

 students. He has visited Oxford to 

 learn the sentiments of the educational 

 authorities and finds that most of the 

 colleges will be glad to welcome the 

 scholars. He is now in America hold- 

 ing conferences with educators and 

 others, and will proceed to the differ- 

 ent British colonies. The chief prac- 

 tical questions seem to concern the 

 methods by which the scholars shall 

 be appointed and the stage in their 

 education at which they shall go to 

 Oxford. The appointing authority is 

 complicated in this country owing to 



