382 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES 



By Professor JAMES S. STEVENS 



UNIVERSITY OF MAINE 



OF all branches of statistics, those which relate to the population of 

 a country or city are of most general interest. The interest felt 

 in the question of our national population culminates every ten years 

 when the census is taken. To be sure, no great importance is to be at- 

 tached to mere numbers ; yet we can not help feeling a little pride if we 

 belong to the biggest religious denomination, the biggest university, or 

 the biggest country. 



The plots in Fig. 1 represent the growth in population of various 

 countries as indicated by the census of 1900. The curves were made by 

 Mr. W. R. Wilcox and were printed in the census report for that year. 



An examination of these curves shows that for the most part the 

 growth of a country is constant; for example, the lines representing 

 France, Spain, Sweden and Norway, Turkey and Italy, are nearly 

 straight. This indicates that while the population of those countries 

 is increasing slightly, there is no great gain from year to year. The 

 population of the United States is represented by a curve which is well 

 known in mathematics. In the chart below I have redrawn this curve, 

 and with it one which is a true parabola. 



It will be seen that these two are strikingly similar. Now if the 

 population of the United States increased in such a manner as always 

 to follow this parabolic form, the census enumeration would be unnec- 

 essary, as one could predict the future population from the past. Un- 

 fortunately, however, this is not the case ; and it is only by a somewhat 

 tedious method that we are able to predict the future population with 

 any degree of certainty. There are two kinds of formula? — rational and 

 empirical. A rational formula is one which is mathematically true 

 under all conditions. The fact that the volume of a cylinder equals -k 

 multiplied by the square of the radius, multiplied by the length, is a 

 fact that does not depend upon any external circumstances whatever. 

 On the other hand, the value of the acceleration due to gravitation is 

 not a constant quantity, but differs with the latitude and altitude of the 

 observer. This latter is one of the most important physical constants 

 in nature and a great deal of time arid money have been expended in 

 determining its value. While there is no mathematical formula that 

 expresses this value, an empirical formula has been devised in which, if 

 one substitutes the latitude and altitude of the place of observation, a 



