6i6 



THE POPULAR- SCIENCE MONTHLY 



Birth Rates in the French Departments 



Every nation except France is in- 

 creasing in population; but the birth 

 rate is decreasing everywhere. Statis- 

 tics can be misapplied to almost any 

 purpose. Thus since 1876 the birth rate 

 for France has decreased from 25 to 

 21 per thousand, whereas for England 

 it has decreased from 36 to 27, and it 

 might be alleged that, should the same 

 decrease continue, the birth rate after 

 an equal period would be about the 

 same for France and England, and 

 about a hundred years thereafter would 

 be 5 in France and less than nothing 

 in England. This is obviously absurd, 

 but it is by no means unlikely that the 

 birth rate will fall below the death rate 

 in all civilized nations and later in 

 other nations as they are brought 

 within the circle of European civil- 

 ization. 



The increase in population during 

 recent years has been due to the de- 

 creased death rate. This has resulted 

 directly from the applications of sci- 

 ence to medicine and hygiene and indi- 

 rectly from the improved conditions of 

 living which science has made possible. 

 In all civilized countries the birth rate 



is now smaller than the death rate was 

 formerly. But the death rate can not 

 decrease indefinitely; it has indeed pos- 

 sibly reached in Great Britain a lower 

 level than can be maintained. A death 

 rate of 16 per thousand in a stationary 

 population means that the average 

 length of life is over 60 years and as 

 one fourth of those who die are under 

 five years of age the average age at 

 death of those surviving infancy would 

 be about 80 years. Odd as it may ap- 

 pear at first sight the decreased death 

 rate of a country such as Great Britain 

 is largely due to a decreasing birth rate 

 combined with an increasing popula- 

 tion. Such conditions give a popula- 

 tion in which there are fewer children 

 under five and fewer old people over 

 sixty, in which groups the death rate 

 is about 60 per thousand, whereas be- 

 tween the ages of 5 and 35 it is below 

 5. In France there are fewer children 

 than have ever existed in any popula- 

 tion, which reduces the death rate; but 

 there are more old people — twice as 

 many as in Great Britain — which in- 

 creases it. The proportion of old 

 people will further increase in France, 



