NATURE OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCE. 5 i 7 



velopment, structure, and functions of the social aggregate, as brought 

 about by the mutual actions of individuals whose natures are partly 

 like those of all men, partly like those of kindred races, partly distinc- 

 tive. 



These phenomena of social evolution have, of course, to be explained 

 with due reference to the conditions each society is exposed to the 

 conditions furnished by its locality and by its relations to neighboring 

 societies. Noting this merely to prevent possible misapprehensions, 

 the fact which here concerns us is, not that the Social Science has these 

 or those special characters, but that, given men having certain proper- 

 ties, and an aggregate of such men must have certain derivative prop- 

 erties which form the subject-matter of a science. 



" But were we not told some pages back that, in societies, causes 

 and effects are related in ways so involved that prevision is often im- 

 possible ? Were we not warned against rashly taking measures for 

 achieving this or that desideratum, regardless of the proofs, so abun- 

 dantly supplied by the past, that agencies set in action habitually work 

 out results never foreseen ? And were not instances given of all-impor- 

 tant changes that were due to influences from which no one would 

 have anticipated them ? If so, how can there be a Social Science ? If 

 Louis Napoleon could not have expected that the war he began to pre- 

 vent the consolidation of Germany would be the very means of consoli- 

 dating it ; if to M. Thiers, live-and-twenty years ago, it would have 

 seemed a dream, exceeding all ordinary dreams in absurdity, that he 

 would be fired at from his own fortifications, how in the name of won- 

 der is it possible to formulate social phenomena in any thing approach- 

 ins: scientific order?" 



The difficulty, thus put in as strong a form as I can find for it, is 

 that which, clearly or vaguely, rises in the minds of most to whom 

 Sociology is proposed as a subject to be studied after scientific meth- 

 ods, with the expectation of reaching results having scientific certainty. 

 Before giving to the question its special answer, let me give it a gen- 

 eral answer. 



The science of Mechanics has reached a development higher than 

 has been reached by any but the purely abstract sciences. Though 

 we may not call it perfect, yet the great accuracy of the predictions 

 which its ascertained principles enable astronomers to make, shows 

 how near to perfection it has come ; and the achievements of the skil- 

 ful artillery-officer prove that, in their applications to terrestrial mo- 

 tions, these principles yield previsions of considerable exactness. But 

 now, taking Mechanics as the type of a highly-developed science, let 

 us note what it enables us to predict, and what it does not enable us 

 to predict, respecting some concrete phenomenon. Say that there is a 

 mine to be exploded. Ask what will happen to the fragments of mat- 

 ter sent into the air. Then observe how much we can infer from estab- 



