494 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



1855 the value of gold produced exceeded that of silver in the pro- 

 portion of seventy-seven and a half to twenty-two and a half ; in 1884 

 the proportions were reversed, and the value of the silver produced 

 was to that of the gold as fifty-seven to forty-three. 



The question now arises whether the relative rarity of gold has 

 been adequate to exercise a sensible influence on prices and on the 

 commerce of the world as a whole. Many writers insist that the two 

 phenomena are connected, because they are simultaneous. It is also 

 worthy of remark that the production of gold fell off at the very time 

 when a considerable number of nations turned to that metal as the 

 basis of their monetary circulation ; when the United States and Ger- 

 many resumed specie payments in gold and Italy began to hoard it. 

 The reasonings of these persons contain some facts mingled with con- 

 jectural inductions. Times of commercial crisis are always character- 

 ized by depression of values. In making our comparisons we should 

 be careful to set off ordinary years against ordinary years, and not let 

 peculiarly exceptional years, such as sometimes occur, slip into one 

 side of the comparison to exaggerate the apparent difference. The 

 depreciation of values, moreover, which is spoken of now, is not uni- 

 versal ; but many articles have escaped it, or have been only feebly 

 affected by it. A considerable number have held their own, or have 

 risen in price, during the past twenty-five years. Tin has fallen but 

 slightly ; the same is the case with soap and bottles. In alimentary 

 products the great depreciation which is talked of is hardly visible, 

 except in wheat, coffee, and sugar. Salt, beer, butter, and pepper 

 have risen. Meat falls but slowly, if at all, and hides are dearer than 

 they were between 1861 and 1870. Through the list as a whole, the 

 tendency to depreciation, it is true, is dominant, but the exceptions 

 are numerous and important. When we turn to human services, of 

 whatever kind, whether professional or those of common laborers, we 

 find that salaries and wages have risen all around. Now, if the cause 

 of the present crisis were the increase in the value of gold, the prices 

 of everything, without exception, would have fallen. They have not 

 done so, and we must look for other causes. If we look without preju- 

 dice, they will not be hard to find. Two conditions may be discovered 

 existing in combination in the cases of all articles the price of which 

 has fallen that the production has become remarkably more abun- 

 dant and the expenses of it have notably diminished. We find both 

 these conditions existing in wheat, cotton, coffee, iron, cast-iron, cop- 

 per, and everything else that is cheaper. 



The amount of territory in cultivation in wheat has increased enor- 

 mously : in Europe, thirty-four per cent in less than thirty-five years ; 

 in the United States, by nearly tripling in thirty-four years and doub- 

 ling in fourteen years ; in the British colonies outside of India, nearly 

 as much. Contrary to the predictions of Malthus and Ricardo, the 

 last quarter of a century has seen food-substances, through the whole 



