THE PREDICTION OF NATURAL PHENOMENA. 539 



Is it based on the general law of causation ? Does it presuppose the 

 acceptance of any theory ? 



Predictions and generalizations based on Bacon's system of induc- 

 tion and simple enumeration are the most common and best known ; 

 they are based on the observation of Nature without experiment. They 

 take the facts as they are, and merely enumerate. This method gov- 

 erned the whole world before the development of natural science. Even 

 to-day it is made the basis of prediction by all who are not familiar 

 with the method of experimental investigation. In this category must 

 be classed the sayings of country people purporting to foretell the 

 weather. If a farmer who places faith in such sayings be asked upon 

 what grounds his belief is founded, he will probably answer, "For so 

 and so many years I have watched the weather, and have always 

 known these rules to come true." At the best, his observations will 

 have been none too accurate ; and as to any actual relation between 

 prediction and fulfillment, of course that is out of the question. 



Even nowadays many families cling to the superstition that thir- 

 teen people should not be seated together at table, because it is a sign 

 that one of the number will die in the coming year. Should any ques- 

 tion be asked as to the reasons on which such a fear might be founded, 

 a great many incidents will undoubtedly be related, instances where 

 thirteen dined together, and death claimed a victim from among the 

 number before the year had passed. The many occasions where thir- 

 teen have dined together and no one of the number has died within 

 the time prescribed (and how often does this not occur in inns and 

 other public places, and no one gives the matter a thought !), these in- 

 stances are of course completely ignored. A patient, who may have 

 consulted several physicians without experiencing relief, finally turns 

 to one of the many patent-medicines advertised in the papers. After 

 a time he feels better ; perhaps the improvement is but temporary, as 

 is so often the case in troubles of long standing, but then, oftentimes 

 urged thereto by the proprietors of the wonderful medicine, he writes 

 a letter of thanks, and anon the papers will herald the announcement, 



" Sure cure to all unfortunates by the famous cure-all, ," and then 



comes some pompous name. Other patients think a great deal of the 

 so-called " sympathetic " cures. When the moon is on the wane they 

 go to a graveyard, taking care to speak to no one on the way, or they 

 throw barley-grains over their head backward into the water, mean- 

 time muttering some incantation. If the believers in these cures be 

 questioned as to how they can place faith in such wondrous arts, they 

 will refer to certain instances where such means have been successfully 

 employed ; but of course they can trace absolutely no connection what- 

 ever between the remedy and its supposed effects. 



Prophecies of a similar kind, that do not, however, exactly tefer to 

 natural phenomena, can only be mentioned here. Thus, a northern light 

 or a comet is said to be the forerunner of war. The relative position 



