598 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



a full and accurate account of the intellectual and moral idiosyncrasy. 

 For, on the one side, there is the inability of parents, etc., to recognize 

 the marks of natural distinction. But few gifted children have been 

 privileged to have their sayings and doings observed and treasured 

 like Clerk-Maxwell or Rowan Hamilton. On the other side, some- 

 thing in the way of overstatement must probably be set down to the 

 exaggerative influence of family affection, and also, perhaps, to the 

 action of the mythopceic impulse in endowing those who have attained 

 greatness with a worthy origin in the shape of a distinguished child- 

 hood. 



Since these two sources of error tend in opposite directions to 

 an underestimate and to an overestimate of the indications of pre- 

 cocity we may perhaps assume that they roughly counterbalance 

 one another. And, so far as there is any appreciable residual 

 error, it would seem to be in the direction of understatement of the 

 case. 



We may now inquire into the meaning of our figures, and the con- 

 clusions to be drawn from them. 



A glance at our different lists will show that throughout precocity 

 preponderates. This will be made more apparent by the following 

 figures : Taking the seven lists together, I find that of the cases ex- 

 amined 231 out of 287, or about four fifths, displayed talent before the 

 age of twenty. The instances of those who gave no sign of their high 

 destiny in their youth must accordingly be regarded as exceptions to 

 the general rule. 



I may add that these exceptions, or, to be more accurate, these ap- 

 parent exceptions, include only one or two names of the first magnitude. 

 I doubt, indeed, whether one could find in the lists of musicians, art- 

 ists, and poets, a single clear instance of a man of supreme genius hav- 

 ing failed to give these early indications. 



In the second place, our inquiries teach us that in the large major- 

 ity of cases the productive period of genius begins early. Thus, in a 

 total of 263 cases, 105 i. e., just two fifths are known to have pro- 

 duced works before twenty ; or 211 or more than fourth fifths be- 

 fore thirty. At the same time these figures plainly show that there is 

 less uniformity in this particular than in the other. 



In the third place, we gather from our investigations that a large 

 majority of great men gain their first considerable success in early 

 manhood. Thus, out of 258 cases, 101, or nearly two fifths, reach this 

 point before twenty-five ; and 155 in all about three fifths before 

 thirty. But the proportion of exceptions becomes decidedly larger 

 here. Thus we have thirty-one instances, or nearly one eighth of the 

 whole, only attaining distinction after forty. And among these are 

 names of very high, if not the highest, eminence. 



It follows that there is only a general and not a perfect consilience 

 with respect to the different marks of precocity here selected. The 



