7 z6 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



standing of it. And, indeed, the political economists, reckoning in 

 all who write on economic topics, are so far apart that the author- 

 ity of their science has greatly declined in the past twenty years, 

 owing to the general doubt as to what the science really stands for. 

 In the early part of this century our politicians were probably our 

 best economists. Now the difference between the leading politicians 

 who make our laws and the men who write is appalling or gro- 

 tesque, as we may choose to look at it. Looking over the whole 

 ground, a physicist would say that the inventions of the present cent- 

 ury were forces falling on units already unlike, and they necessarily 

 led to increased divergence in wealth and intelligence. Dissimilarity 

 once initiated bred dissimilarity. Those successful under the new 

 r'egime were able to combine their capital and undertake large and 

 profitable enterprises. Here, again, appeared differences. Probably a 

 majority of those who so invested have either lost money or have at 

 least failed to make much, as we may be sure from the fact that the 

 average return on capital actually invested in railroads in this country 

 is less than four per cent ; and, of course, the return to the original 

 undertakers was even less. Others, however, like Mr. Vanderbilt, 

 reaped a rich reward ; and thus came increased divergence. 



Enough has been said, I think, to make it clear and indeed it is 

 obvious at first thought that the golden opportunities seized by our 

 business chiefs have been offered principally because the past age has 

 been one of enormously rapid transition. Yery few men were adapted 

 to the new circumstances, and those few necessarily reaped a large 

 profit. Such violent and disorderly transitions are very uncomfort- 

 able ; and it is to this fact, if the foregoing views are correct, that we 

 must ascribe the manifestations of irritation even among those obvi- 

 ously benefited manifestations which are to be found in our litera- 

 ture, our universal hurry, and our entire conduct of life.* 



II. The second question Will the circumstances favoring the sud- 

 den aggregation of wealth continue ? is thus in large measure an- 

 swered by the first. It now takes the form, How long will the 

 period of active transition continue ? This question naturally divides 

 itself into two others, which may be separately discussed : 



1. "What is the prospect of new inventions which will have a 

 power of disturbance similar to that already shown by steam and elec- 

 tricity? This is, of course, very hard to say, but we are not alto- 

 gether without light. No great alteration in methods of business is 

 possible except through improvement in the means of transportation, 

 and through the removal of artificial obstructions to transportation, 

 such as tariffs and other interferences of the government with the 



* Our feverish haste struck Mr. Spencer as our leading national trait. And in " The 

 Nation" of August 30, 1883, is a thoughtful and striking editorial, in which it is re- 

 marked that discontent, so far from being peculiar to the working class, pervades all 

 classes. 



