THE WEATHER VS. THE NEWSPAPERS. 387 



nine per cent, of piety. And yet these creatures are quoted and ex- 

 ploited, their forecasts are printed in a conspicuous manner and they 

 are encouraged to fleece the ignorant by the authority and circulation 

 given them even by metropolitan journalism. 



The spectacle is stultifying, and yet, in the face of this, in the face 

 of the fact that Weather Bureau stations in the great centers of popula- 

 tion have been compelled to phrase their forecasts in primer English, 

 because 'cyclone' and 'anti-cyclone' puzzled the newspapers and fright- 

 ened the people, whose idea had been formed on newspaper interpre- 

 tation of the forecasts; because Tiighs' and 'lows' were deemed too 

 mysterious for comprehension; in face of all this humiliating con- 

 fusion, the forecasts, if they err, are criticized in a way that not only 

 brings out all the old, but a new ignorance that is as invincible as it 

 is hypercritical, and raises a popular prejudice against the Weather 

 Bureau wholly unwarranted by the facts. Making no quack claims, 

 the Bureau officials are discredited as to short-range or long-range 

 forecasts, while the Wigginses and Devoes take the tripod and scatter 

 storms, floods and dooms, as the irresponsible bad boy splashes water, 

 and are acclaimed therefor. The essential fundamental difficulty of 

 the question of forecasts is — aside from the blank misunderstanding 

 of forecasts that are verified by results — that those who criticize fore- 

 casting not only exaggerate the percentage of error, but are wholly 

 oblivious to the fact that forecasting is an art rather than a science. 

 The art is based on science, and as the science improves so will the 

 art; but being an art, the personal equation — knowledge of facts being 

 equal — plays a very important part in results. If criticism were 

 directed to any real shortcomings in the Bureau's organization, the 

 Bureau's interests would be promoted; but here, as in other features 

 of weather discussion, the real issues not being apprehended, the 

 discussion is usually pointless and without result. Equipped as the 

 average first-class American newspaper is in plant and staff, alert, 

 keenly anxious to be up to date, impatient of humbug, a unique oppor- 

 tunity is given it by the first year of the new century — always a season 

 of repentance — for that about-face in its treatment of the weather that 

 its past lapses in this respect and the pressing importance of the subject 

 demand. 



Chabt No. 1. — In this chart, and in all the succeeding ones, the heavy con- 

 tinuous lines are isobars, the lines connecting points that have the same baro- 

 metric pressures. They thus map out the area in which the barometer may be 

 above or below the normal. The dotted lines are isotherms connecting points that 

 have the same temperatures. On the morning of September 18, 1900, the weather 

 over the central and Atlantic Coast States was dominated by a typical anti- 

 cyclonic eddy, central over Wisconsin. This anti-cyclone moved into the United 

 States over Montana on the fifteenth, and its drift, being a little south of east, 

 its center passed out to sea off Cape Cod on the twentieth. It was accompanied 



