DISCUSSION AND CORRESPONDENCE. 



657 



calculated numbers a little over a cen- 

 tury hence, for that would be a density 

 of about 125 per mile — far greater than 

 Europe. 



It is also difficult to see how science 

 is to produce food indefinitely, for the 

 real basis of food production is the soil 

 and vegetation, such as the changing of 

 cellulose into starches and sugars. The 

 possible limit is the amount of the sun's 

 energy we can capture through vege- 

 tation. The calculated population of a 

 thousand years hence, 41 billions, or 

 11,000 per mile, is not at present con- 

 ceivable. 



There is a law of population, that its 

 increase depends upon its density, ir- 

 respective of the birth rate; hence at 

 the saturation point the death rate 

 must equal the birth rate, as at present 

 in China, where the large birth rate is 

 compensated by frightful destruction of 

 life, awful pestilences, famines, univer- 

 sal infanticide and judicial executions 

 for every felony. Our civilization will 

 never tolerate such mortality, nor can 

 the surplus migrate, as it has been do- 

 ing from Europe for four hundred years. 

 Yet we need have no fear of future fam- 

 ines and pestilence due to overcrowding 

 and so necessary in India and China, for 

 the solution of the problem will come 

 of its own accord in a natural limita- 

 tion of the size of families by preven- 

 tion of conception or some other means, 

 a process already begun, as many have 

 already pointed out. The average num- 

 ber of children in English families is 

 already less than four. By the time we 

 have reached our maximum growth it is 

 quite likely that the number of children 

 in American families will be less than 

 three, or just enough to compensate for 

 unavoidable deaths and still keep the 

 population stationary. The deliberations 

 of the Malthusian societies may appear 

 very absurd, but they are merely 

 discussing things which are sure to 

 come about naturally and not artifi- 

 cially. 



Thus Dr. Pritchett's estimates of our 

 future population of 11,000 per square 

 mile, being based upon the rates of 



VOL. I.VIII.— i'2 



increase in a country far below its satu- 

 ration point, it seems that a better for- 

 mula could have been obtained by tak- 

 ing the increases in European countries 

 which probably have been saturated since 

 the glacial times and supersaturated ever 

 since they became maritime powers and 

 could import food. Thus England had 

 5£ millions in 1650, and only 6i mil- 

 lions in 1750, and less than 9 millions 

 in 1800; since then, through food im- 

 portations due to commerce, her rate of 

 increase has been about i3 per cent, 

 per decade. Our rate, as above stated, 

 was 32 per cent, in 1800, 24 per cent, in 

 1880, and the time it will be 13 may be 

 long before 1990, and it is quite likely 

 to be zero within a century or two. 



Our country will never contain more 

 people than it can feed, and the struggle 

 for existence or the stress of life will 

 not be a particle more severe than now. 

 Since the first paleolithic man appeared 

 on the scene, Europe has supported as 

 many men as she could and has thus 

 been at the saturation point, ever on 

 the verge of over-population, needing 

 famines, wars of expansion and other 

 forms of deaths, so that there has al- 

 ways been the same struggle for exist- 

 ence we see now, and that struggle can 

 never be more severe than it has always 

 been there. The course of civilization 

 would even iustify a prediction that life 

 will be made easier, so that posterity 

 may pity us as we pity our savage an- 

 cestors in their terrible struggle for 

 existence. 



Chas. E. Woodruff, U. S. A. 

 Fort Riley, Kan., Jan. 30, 1901. 



THE ORIGIN OF MEN OF GENIUS. 

 To the Editor: I have been much 

 interested in Havelock Ellis's 'Study of 

 British Genius,' for the reason that his 

 conclusions are so nearly paralleled by 

 a study of a like character for several 

 of the continental countries reported by 

 me in the latest number of the 'Con- 

 servative Review.' Mr. Ellis says, 

 among other things: "When we sur- 

 vey the field of investigation I have 

 here briefly summarized, the most strik- 



