64 



POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



THE DECEEASE IN THE SIZE OF AMEEICAN FAMILIES. 



By Peofessor EDWARD L. THOENDIKE, 



TEACHERS COLLEGE, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, NEW YORK. 



THE vital statistics of three other eastern colleges show the failure 

 of Harvard graduates to produce their share of the present gen- 

 eration to be but a single example of a widespread condition. They 

 further prove that the common discussions of the theoretical and prac- 

 tical questions which this failure suggests are superficial and mislead- 

 ing. In reality its explanation leads us directly to the fundamental 

 problem of evolution. The facts are best seen in tabular form. 



Size of Families of American College Graduates.* 



The first number in each column gives the average number of children; 

 the number in parenthesis gives the number of cases on which the average id 

 based. 



* These figures come in the case of Middlebury and New York University 

 from the alumni catalogues, which give the number of children living and dead, 

 from the answers to questions collected by Professor Nicholson in the case of 

 Wesleyan University (both living and dead children ate included), and from 

 President Eliot's report, in which case only living children were counted. There 

 are doubtless inaccuracies in the records, but the tendency of these would be 

 to make our figures relatively too small for the earlier decades, and conse- 

 quently truer records would only emphasize the decrease in productivity upon 

 which all the arguments of this discussion will be based. 



In the case of the Middlebury and New York University records, I have 

 used only those families where the husband had been married at least ten years 

 before he died. In the case of the Wesleyan records all married graduates have 

 been included as the data required to make a selection on the basis of length 

 of married life were lacking. I have to thank Professor F. W. Nicholson, Sec- 

 retary of Wesleyan University, for the use of his records and Mrs. E. B. Brovra 

 for the report of the New York University graduates. 



t The Wesleyan averages include cases from 41 through 50, etc. 



t The New York University averages include cases from 35-44, 45-54, etc. 



§ This average would be slightly raised by children to be born after th 

 time of record. 



