356 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



sons married among the natives is much smaller than among the for- 

 eign born, and the difference is particularly great at the most fruitful 

 periods of life. Thirdly, the proportion of married women that have 

 never had children is much greater among the natives than among 

 the foreign born. It is one fifth among the natives and two fifteenths 

 among foreigners. Fourthly, the birth rate among married women 

 of child bearing age is much larger among foreign born. The figures 

 are 143.47 per mille for natives and 251.76 for foreign born. Finally, 

 an interesting result for our purpose is that for the period under dis- 

 cussion, 1885-1897, the marriage rate and the proportion of married 

 women were decreasing among the natives and increasing among the 

 foreigners. And the refined birth rates were fairly steady for the 

 natives, but increasing for the foreign born. 



As to the question of whether the native population is actually 

 keeping up its numbers or not, after showing the paucity of our vital 

 statistics as compared with those of Berlin, Mr. Kuczynski says, "But 

 as the tables of fecundity of Berlin show that, with an annual special 

 birth rate of ten for every hundred women in child-bearing age, in 

 1891-95, the births were one ninth behind the number necessary to 

 keep the population of Berlin stationary, it is probable that the native 

 population of Massachusetts, with a special birth rate of 6.3 births for 

 every 100 adult women in child bearing age, and a mortality of the 

 female sex not correspondingly lower than that of Berlin, can not only 

 not hold its own, but is dying out at a considerable pace. ' '* In studies 

 which I have made upon the population of Boston by nationalities! 

 practically the same results were obtained, although there was less 

 opportunity to make a detailed study of the birth rates. The figures 

 for Boston indicate that the negroes and the native whites are failing 

 to keep up their numbers — the former on account of a high death rate 

 and the latter on account of a low birth rate. On the other hand, all 

 the foreign born groups show a natural increase, though the rate of 

 increase varies greatly with the different nationalities. On the whole, 

 the most recently immigrating nationalities have the highest birth 

 rates. 



The statistics, although somewhat fragmentary, seem to show that 

 in Massachusetts, and probably also in other sections of the country 

 having similar social conditions, the older part of the population, rep- 

 resented roughly by native Americans, is slowly dying out because of 

 the low birth rate. If this is true the conditions in the older parts of 

 the United States bear a strong resemblance to those in France, except 

 that in the latter country the population as a whole fails to increase, 

 while in this country it is only a section of the population. In the 



* Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 1902, p. 184. 

 t Publication American Economic Association, May, 1903. 



