460 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



A brief survey of China's economic condition will be of service. In 

 former times China was like a "balance-tank" in an aquarium, self- 

 supporting. As Boss has recently accurately remarked, the nation is an 

 exemplification of the law of Malthus, the balance between population 

 and means of existence. To us of America a true mental picture of the 

 economic status of the Chinese is almost an impossibility. A compari- 

 son may serve, and by pointing out that the present degree of comfort 

 and convenience enjoyed by the average Chinese demands a coal pro- 

 duction 1/175 of that in the United States, and until recently an iron 

 and steel production only 1/1,200 that of the United States, it may be 

 more clear that the Chinese nation as a whole is close to the margin 

 of mere existence. The problem with the average Chinese is an ele- 

 mental one; enough food to preserve life and enough clothes to keep 

 warm and subserve modesty. China's present unenviable position is 

 not unlikely largely due to the fact that when international trade 

 developed and the export of tea began to meet the import of the ubiqui- 

 tious blue cotton cloth that forms the Chinese national dress, the 

 acreage formerly devoted to the cultivation of cotton was sown to the 

 opium poppy and the national wealth vanished in curls of smoke that 

 wafted away at once the substance and virility of the people. 



Now the use of opium is almost suppressed, soon will be completely 

 so, and the land devoted to its cultivation, will be sown to grain, sugar 

 beets and other crops of real value. The problem is still an elemental 

 one, however. It is idle to simply point out that by opening mines, 

 building railways and developing manufacturing industries, the scale 

 of living of the Chinese citizen can be raised to approximately as lux- 

 urious a plane as in the United States. The real question is — will the 

 increase in the wage of the average citizen bring him increased comfort 

 and convenience, or will it bring a few more mouths to feed and another 

 approximation to the margin of existence? If the latter, the Chinese 

 expression for the management of a household — "Kuo jih-tze" to get 

 over the day — will remain always, as now, the index of national econ- 

 omy. Upon the answer to this question hangs China's future. 



The further elaboration of this topic would take me into a field in 

 which I scarcely dare venture. It is still a subject of discussion in this 

 country whether the restriction of the size of families is compatible 

 with good morals and good economics. Apparently the pragmatic 

 answer is in the affirmative. The great desire of the Chinese parent for 

 offspring to maintain the rites of ancestral worship further complicates 

 an already complex problem and I will leave it in abeyance, in order 

 to discuss the problem of securing national prosperity from the stand- 

 point of the scanty facts available. 



Of China's present foreign indebtedness nearly $350,000,000 repre- 

 sents indemnities, largely the outcome of the outbreak of 1900. The 



