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POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



smooth road is reached? Both ambition and pocket are interested in 

 the answer and without doubt many a young man has been influenced 

 in his choice of profession by his conclusion on this matter. The data 

 at my command throw light only indirectly on this question, but more 

 directly on another. How long must I wait for eminence, if it ever 

 comes, and in what profession may I expect it earliest? If there be 

 any fixed relation between a foothold and success, then the former 

 question may be answered by inference. A tabulation of the ages of 

 each of the eight thousand and more individuals of both sexes for 

 the vocations mentioned above (with the exception of a few less fre- 

 quently chosen) is shown graphically in Figs. 2 and 3. The former 

 is for males and the latter for females, though the gentler sex was a 

 competitor of sufficient strength to warrant consideration in seven only. 

 In each of the figures the vocations are indicated at the bottom. Of 

 the two heavy vertical lines (ordinates) above each vocation, the one 

 at the left indicates by its height the percentage of the whole number 



60- 

 50- 

 40- 

 30 - 

 20- 

 10 - 



jLIL 



u ii I 



Fig. 2. 



mentioned who were below forty years of age; in other words, the 

 percentage of young men and women who had achieved eminence in it, 

 if we may assume that a person is young until he is forty. The ordinate 

 at the right of each pair shows in a similar manner by its height the 

 average age in years of all those mentioned for the vocation indicated 

 below. In each case the ordinates are to be read by means of the scales 

 at the left and right of the figure: the youth ordinate in percentages 

 and that for age in years, although the figure is so drawn that the same 

 scales apply to both. These figures show then, as fully as an inductive 

 study based upon a limited number of data will permit, (1) the rela- 

 tive probability of achieving early distinction in the various professions, 

 (2) the average ages of persons of distinction in those professions, (3) 

 a basis of comparison for the two sexes. 



