3H POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



work requires the larger features to be executed in succession to a con- 

 siderable extent, or much duplication of plant and the employment 

 of a great force of laborers, practically all of whom must be foreigners, 

 housed, organized and maintained in a practically uninhabited tropical 

 country where many serious difficulties reach a maximum. It is not 

 within the experience of civil engineers to execute by any practicable 

 means that kind of a program on schedule time. The weight of this 

 observation is much increased when it is remembered that the total 

 volume of work may be taken as nearly twice as great in Nicaragua 

 as at Panama, and that large portions between Lake Nicaragua and the 

 Caribbean Sea must be executed in a region of continual and enormous 

 rainfall. It would seem more reasonable to the writer to estimate eight 

 years for the completion of the Panama canal and ten years for the 

 completion of the Nicaragua canal. 



The prospective industrial and commercial value of the canal also 

 occupied the attention of the commission in a broad and careful study 

 of the elements which enter that part of the problem. It is difficult 

 if not impossible to predict just what the effect of a trans-isthmian 

 canal would be either upon the ocean commerce of the United States, or 

 of other parts of the world, but it seems reasonable to suppose from the 

 result of the commission's examinations that had the canal been in 

 existence in 1899 at least 5,000,000 tons of the actual traffic of that 

 year would have been accommodated by it. The opening of such a 

 waterway, like the opening of all other traffic routes, induces the crea- 

 tion of new traffic to an extent that cannot be estimated, but it would 

 appear to be reasonable to suppose that within ten years from the date 

 of its opening the vessel tonnage using it would not be less than 

 10,000,000 tons. 



The Nicaragua route would favor in distance the traffic between our 

 Atlantic, including Gulf, and Pacific ports. The distances between our 

 Atlantic ports and San Francisco would be about 378 nautical miles 

 less than by Panama. Between New Orleans and San Francisco, this 

 difference in favor of the route by Greytown and Brito would be 580 

 nautical miles. It must be remembered, however, that the greater time 

 by at least twenty-four hours, required for passage through the 

 Nicaragua canal, practically obliterates this advantage, and in some 

 cases would throw the advantage in favor of the Panama waterway. 

 This last observation would hold with particular force if for any reason 

 a vessel should not continue her passage, or should continue it at a 

 reduced speed during hours of darkness, which could not be escaped 

 on the Nicaragua canal, but might be avoided at Panama. For all 

 traffic between the Atlantic, including gulf ports, and the west coast 

 of South America, the Panama crossing would be the most advantageous. 

 As a matter of fact, while there may be some small advantage in miles 



