3 iS POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



number 80,000,000, say in 1903-4. For convenience in this prelimi- 

 nary study I therefore use 80,000,000 as the factor of population. I 

 have computed the per capita expenditures on many lines from the data 

 of 1900 and 1901, then by multiplying these normal figures of the two 

 normal years before the effect of the short crop of 1901. In this way I 

 compute the per capita and the gross value of each subject treated as it 

 will be on a population numbering 80,000,000. This is only a pre- 

 liminary study, subject to correction and completion after the final 

 data of the census of 1900 become available; also subject to verifica- 

 tion by other methods than the official census, such as I have made use 

 of in this partial analysis. 



Within the limited time and space allowed I can not cite authori- 

 ties. Suffice it that I have, as far as possible, verified figures by refer- 

 ence to the special experts of the census and to various students of 

 specific arts and subjects; notably in iron and steel, liquors, tobacco, 

 cottons, woolens, dairy products, etc. ; to all of whom I shall give credit 

 when this preliminary study has been carried to completion. 



Item No. 1, Liquors, Divided into Spirits, Wines and Fermented 

 Liquors. — The average consumption of liquors has been computed in 

 the Bureau of Statistics of the Treasury Department for many years 

 with outside aid from a special trade expert. It has also been com- 

 puted year by year by the editor of the American Grocer. The two esti- 

 mates vary. The estimate of the American Grocer of the per capita 

 expenditure comes to $14.20. The official estimate for the same year 

 comes to $17.90. The latter may be more reasonably accepted than the 

 former conservative estimate. This annual expenditure appears to be 

 very large, but it proves in fact that the people of the United States 

 are temperate as compared with European nations. It is evident that, 

 since quantities are measured by taxation and values can be readily 

 measured at the points of distribution, this computation is subject to 

 a very small margin of error. The editor of the American Grocer com- 

 putes spirits at forty-eight drinks to a gallon, which is the measure of 

 standard liquor per drink in the best clubs. At his estimate of the 

 total quantity, 1-33 gallons per head and amount expended, the average 

 charge per glass of liquor is less than ten cents. Now in view of the 

 custom of watering liquor, making at least sixty drinks to a gallon, 

 and the probably average higher charge than ten cents a drink, his 

 expenditure for spirits is probably too low.* 



* Quantity of spirits estimated and taxed in the year 1901, 87,086,839 

 gallons, at 48 drinks per gallon computed at $4.50 retail, $391,890,775, if all 

 were consumed as a beverage. In that year there were 26,000,000 males of 

 seventeen years of age and over. The quantity named would give less than 

 half a drink a day to this number. Drinks are at the rate of one or more 

 per day. It follows that less than half the males of seventeen or over ever 

 drink spirits, and by as much as some drink more must others go without. 



