A YEAR OF WEATHER AND TRADE. 439 



A YEAR OF WEATHER AND TRADE IN THE UNITED 



STATES. 



By Professor ROBERT DeC. WARD, 



HARVARD UNIVERSITY. 



rTlHAT weather conditions affect trade and industry has long been 

 -L known, but few studies of these relations have yet been made.* 

 The hope of being able to determine, in a somewhat critical way, the 

 dependence of trade and industry in the United States upon the gen- 

 eral weather conditions from week to week, has induced the writer to 

 give some attention to this subject for a year past. The sources of 

 information have been the Climate and Crop Bulletins, and the Monthly 

 Weather Review, of the Weather Bureau, and the well-known trade 

 journals, Bradstreet's and R. G. Dun and Co.'s Review. The Weather 

 Bureau publications emphasize the meteorological side alone; the two 

 journals last named aim to present a true statement of trade conditions 

 without any special prejudice in favor of meteorological controls. 



The first summer month of 1901 f began with decidedly cool weather 

 east of the Mississippi River, and heavy rains in many eastern districts. 

 This unseasonable weather was the key of the trade situation. Retail 

 trade throughout the east was interfered with by the 'lack of sunny 

 weather ' ; the growth of crops was retarded, and cotton and cereals were 

 high. Manufacturers of umbrellas, rain clothing, rubbers and heavy 

 footwear alone reported 'an exceptional demand.' 



The second week of June was, on the whole, more favorable. In 

 the east, where the temperatures were more nearly normal, there was 

 an improved retail demand for summer wearing apparel, and this was 

 also true of the northwest, where needed rains had ' quieted apprehen- 

 sions as to the spring- wheat outlook.' The stimulation in trade in 

 summer goods led to increased orders for fall merchandise. Dairy and 

 garden products fell in price, as production increased with warmer 

 weather. On the Pacific coast, the third week of June averaged 

 decidedly cool, and trade was retarded in consequence. At a number 

 of cities situated in a district where the average daily temperature excess 

 was 3°-6°, the ' warmer weather created a demand for summer goods,' 



* A noteworthy article in this connection, ' The Influence of Rainfall on 

 Commerce and Politics,' by H. H. Clayton, appeared in the Popular Science 

 Monthly for December, 1901, pp. 158-165. 



t This investigation includes the period June, 1901 — June, 1902. 



