THE ILLUSION OF CHANCE. 209 



least a thousand miles,* and dragon-flies certainly two hundred miles 

 from land.f During a recent voyage from New Zealand to New 

 South Wales, and thence to Japan, frequently, for several days in 

 succession, moths and butterflies were visible in the air nearly every 

 hour in the day. 







THE ILLUSION OF CHANCE. 



By WILLIAM A. EDDY. 



STUDY of the movements of events reveals dynamical, necessary 

 sequences, and contemplation of the laws of probability, treated 

 mathematically, generally involves a mental attitude at variance with 

 theories of luck and premonition. It is believed that a rational treat- 

 ment of the question will help to dispel superstitious ideas by disclosing 

 the chain of continuity in all known actions. First, we will consider 

 events mathematically, or as illustrating the laws of probability ; and, 

 second, as related to the practical question of success in life. The 

 subject includes indirectly the question of ethics. Wrong or injurious 

 action seems to disappear into a vast labyrinth. As we judge super- 

 ficially or by immediate effects, we are easily misled into a belief that 

 fraud may result in permanent gain, or that oppression will cure some 

 political evils. It is important, for instance, that we have right ideas 

 regarding the tendency in affairs whereby continued injustice or abuse 

 of power comes to retribution. The jarring of the just relations of 

 things leads to complications too subtile to be controlled, as the tyrants 

 of history found by terrible experience, and the fact that our control 

 is partial, as noticed definitely further on, should cause fear of the 

 improper use of power. These truths well justify an examination of 

 the subject. 



Before considering the more complicated question of partial con- 

 trol in its relation to success, we will first glance at the simple or 

 direct relations between familiar events, as seen in the calculable uni- 

 formity in the average results of great numbers of so-called games of 

 chance. The numerical results of card-playing and dice-throwing, as 

 examined by Professor Venn, have reaffirmed what is generally known 



* "December 13, 1876, latitude 17 24' north, longitude 44 12' west. While taking 

 the sun at noon, noticed a number of grasshoppers about the vessel. Made several un- 

 successful attempts to capture one of them. The nearest point of land is the Island of 

 Montserrat, latitude 16 48' north, longitude 62 12' west, distant 1,023 miles." (Extract 

 from a private log.) 



\ In the vicinity of the river La Plata, violent westerly gales, called pamperos, are of 

 frequent occurrence. One of the surest precursors of these gales is the appearance of 

 numerous dragon-flies in the air. I have seen these insects collecting about the ship fully 

 two hundred miles from land, off the entrance of the river, while the wind was still blow, 

 ing a gale from the eastward. 

 vol. xxiv.-*-l 4 



