THE BERING SEA CONTROVERSY. 665 



because we do not know the period of life in the female. If, how- 

 ever, we estimate it at thirteen years, which seems to be a conservative 

 figure, the animal would have ten years of breeding life. Then, from 

 old age alone, ten per cent of the adult breeding females must die 

 annually. This leaves a net gain of six and two thirds per cent with 

 accidental factors unaccounted for. The killing of females which 

 does not produce actual diminution must come well within this mar- 

 gin of six and two thirds per cent. It only remains to be stated that 

 the pelagic catch of 1897, which was the smallest on record since 

 1884, exceeded fourteen per cent. 



14. While, whether from a consideration of the birth rate or from an 

 inspection of the visible effects, it is manifest that the take of females in 

 recent years has been so far in excess of the natural increment as to had 

 to the reduction of the herd in the degree related above, yet the ratio of 

 the pelagic catch of one year to that of the following has fallen off more 

 rapidly than the ratio of the breeding herd of one year to the breeding 

 herd of the next. 



This paragraph corrects possible erroneous implications which 

 might be drawn from the truism in the preceding paragraph. A 

 certain number of females may be taken, etc., but so many in excess 

 of the safety limit have been taken that the herd has been reduced 

 " in the degree related above " — that is, for 1896-97, nine to twelve 

 per cent, and for 1884-'97, fifty to eighty per cent. 



Dr. Mendenhall said: "It will be impossible to know absolutely 

 which group of scientific experts was right (in 1892) in regard to 

 pelagic sealing." The admission made in this paragraph, taken to- 

 gether with other admissions made in paragraphs 11 and 12, effectu- 

 ally disproves this prediction. It ought to be a source of gratification 

 to Dr. Mendenhall and to his colleague, Dr. Merriam, to find it thus 

 clearly proved that they were right and their British associates wrong. 



The final clause is here again a diplomatic concession to take the 

 sting out of the real admission. The rapid fall in the pelagic catch 

 as compared with the more even decline of the breeding herd is a 

 natural phenomenon. Pelagic sealing not only destroys the herd, 

 but it is necessarily self-destructive because it preys upon its own 

 capital. The more successful it is the sooner it must cease. With 

 the decline of the herd it is itself declining, and the rapidity of its 

 fall proves the nearness of the end. For the years since 1894 the 

 pelagic catch has been 61,000, 56,000, 43,000, and 25,000 respec- 

 tively. It is a significant fact that in four years, under regulations 

 which permit the pelagic sealer to take all he can get, the product 

 of his industry has fallen to less than one half. 



15. In this greater reduction of the pelagic catch, compared with the 

 gradual decrease of the herd, there is a tendency toward equilibrium, or 



