666 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



a stage at which the numbers of the breeding herd would neither increase 

 nor decrease. In considering the probable size of the herd in the imme- 

 diate future, there remains to be estimated the additional factor of decline 

 resulting from reductions in the number of surviving pups, caused by tbe 

 larger pelagic catch of 1894 and 1895. 



The two statements in this paragraph are not related. The first 

 is a part of the preceding paragraph and is self-evident. Should the 

 pelagic catch continue to decrease, as it must, it will eventually come 

 within the margin of six and two thirds per cent. It has yet to fall 

 far before this end is reached. Then will come that much-mooted 

 " equilibrium," when the herd will be too insignificant to be worthy 

 of attack — the equilibrium of ruin. There is no comfort in this 

 prospect, either for the pelagic sealer or for the owner of the herd, 

 and it takes no note of the injury which has been accomplished in 

 the past, much less of possible restoration in the future. The equilib- 

 rium here suggested is purely a figure of speech, another concession 

 to diplomacy. 



The final statement of this paragraph is more important. The 

 starvation of pups as a result of the killing of mothers at sea has 

 been a fact strenuously denied from the first by the British side of 

 the fur-seal controversy. After the actual counting of 16,000 of 

 these starved pups in 1896, this position could no longer be main- 

 tained. At the same time a specific admission of the fact of starva- 

 tion and of the destruction of unborn pups was too difficult a matter 

 for the British experts to face. These facts are left to be inferred 

 from the " reductions in surviving pups " here noted and from the 

 admission that " nursing and pregnant females " are taken in the 

 pelagic catch. Stated directly, it is here admitted that on account 

 of " the larger pelagic catch of 1894 and 1895," numbers of pups 

 starved to death on the rookeries or died unborn with their mothers 

 which in the course of Nature should have reached the killable and 

 breeding age. 



16. The diminution of the herd is yet far from a stage which involves 

 or threatens the actual extermination of the species, so long as it is pro- 

 tected in its haunts on land. It is not possible during the continuation of 

 the conservative methods at present in force upon the islands, with the 

 further safeguard of the protected zone at sea, that any pelagic killing 

 should accomplish this final end. There is evidence, however, that in its 

 present condition the herd yields an inconsiderable return either to the 

 lessees of the islands or to the owners of the pelagic fleet. 



The statements of this concluding paragraph must be taken in 

 close connection, and the " ifs " must be carefully noted if they are 

 not to prove very misleading. The opening sentence refers to the 

 biologic extinction of the herd as contrasted with its commercial ruin. 

 The former is as yet far off, the latter is a matter of history, aa 



