THE WHEAT PROBLEM AGAIN. 761 



of the future and of the cotton-seed-oil industry, then almost unheard 

 of in this country. In 1880 I also entered upon my first " specula- 

 tion " (not in the market) on the lines of a " contemplation " or 

 forecast of the effect of agricultural machinery applied to our wheat 

 land, coupled with the prospective reduction in the cost of carrying 

 wheat to England, upon the condition of the American farmer and 

 the British landlord. That forecast of prosperity to our farmers in 

 the supply of bread at low cost to our kin beyond the sea has been 

 justified at every point and in every detail. I therefore ventured to 

 review Sir William Crookes's address, and I am well assured that what 

 Mr. Hyde now calls a " somewhat dubious outlook " is subject to no 

 doubt whatever as to our ability to continue our full supply for do- 

 mestic consumption and export for the next century. 



Let me now repeat again what I have often said: statistics are 

 good servants, but very bad masters. I long since ceased to put any 

 great reliance upon averages of crops, wages, or products covering 

 wide areas and varying conditions, unless I could find out, first, the 

 personal equation of the man who compiled them; second, ascertain 

 what he knew himself about the subject of which his statistics or 

 figures were the symbols; and, third, unless I could verify these great 

 averages from one or more typical areas of farm land, or from one or 

 more representative factories or workshops, of the conditions of which 

 I could myself obtain personal information. 



General statistics and averages of farm products and earnings I 

 regard with more suspicion than almost any others because of the im- 

 mense variation in conditions. 



I have sometimes almost come to the conclusion that so many of 

 the figures of the United States census are mere statistical rubbish as 

 to throw a doubt on nearly all the schedules. Yet without accurate 

 statistics on many points, many of them yet to be secured, the conduct 

 of our national affairs must become as uncertain as would be the 

 conduct of any great business corporation without a true ledger ac- 

 count and a trial balance. Hence the necessity for a permanent 

 census bureau and for a careful " speculation " or " intellectual " and 

 intelligent examination and " contemplation " or study of the facts 

 about our land by which our future welfare must be governed. 



A good beginning has been made by the authorities of many 

 States, yet more by the body of well-trained men in charge of the 

 Agricultural Experiment Station, in whose support too much can 

 not be said. To them I appealed when trying to get an adequate con- 

 ception of our potential in wheat. 



When we think of the blunders which have been made in very 

 recent years, we may well have some suspicion that we may still be 

 very ignorant on many points about our own country. Who really 



VOL. LIV. — 57 



