122 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



population, because the children, though born in smaller proportion, 

 are better cared for, and the rate of excess of births over deaths conse- 

 quently remains considerable, although the birth-rate itself is low. 

 The serious fact would be a decline of the rate of the excess of births 

 over deaths through the death-rate remaining comparatively high 

 while the birth-rate falls. It is in this conjunction that the gravity of 

 the stationariness of population in France appears to lie. While the 

 birth-rate in France is undoubtedly a low one, 21.9 per 1,000 in 1899, 

 according to the latest figures before me, still this would have been 

 quite sufficient to ensure a considerable excess rate of births over 

 deaths, and a considerable increase of population every ten years if the 

 death-rate had been as low as in the United Kingdom — viz., 18.3 per 

 1,000. A diiference of 3.6 per 1,000 upon a population of about 40 

 millions comes to about 150,000 per annum, or 1,500,000 and rather 

 more every ten years. In France, however, the death-rate was 21.1 

 per 1,000, instead of 18.3, as in the United Kingdom, and it is this 

 comparatively high death-rate which really makes the population 

 stationary. The speculations indulged in some quarters, therefore, 

 though they may be justified in future, are hardly yet justified by the 

 general statistical facts. The subject is one of profound interest, and 

 must be carefully studied; but the conclusions I have referred to must 

 be regarded as premature until the study has been made. 



Conclusion. 

 Such are a few illustrations of the importance of the ideas Avhich 

 are suggested by the most common statistics — those of the regular 

 records which civilized societies have instituted. It is, indeed, self- 

 evident how important it is to know such facts as the growing weight 

 of countries of European civilization in comparison with others; the 

 relative growth of the British Empire, Eussia, Germany and the 

 United States, in comparison with other nations of Europe or of Euro- 

 pean origin; the dependence of other European countries as well as 

 the United Kingdom upon imports of food and raw materials; the 

 ability of old countries and of old centers in new countries to maintain 

 large and increasing populations; and the evidence which is now 

 accumulating of changes in the rate of growth of European nations, 

 with suggestions as to the causes of the changes. It would be easy, 

 indeed, to write whole chapters on some of the topics instead of making 

 a remark or two only to bring out their value a little. It would also 

 be very easy to add to the list. There was a strong temptation to in- 

 clude in it a reference to the relative growth of England, Scotland and 

 Ireland, which has now become the text of so much discussion regard- 

 ing the practical question of diminishing the relative representation of 

 Ireland in Parliament, and increasing that of England and Scotland. 



