RAINFALL AND COMMERCE AND POLITICS. 163 



occurred the severe financial panic of 1893 to 1894. This panic 

 occurred one or two years before the greatest deficiency of rainfall and 

 thus differed from the preceding panics which occurred one or two 

 years after the greatest deficiency. But a very marked depression in 

 business activity continued throughout the interval 1893 to 1897 in- 

 clusive. 



It is thus evident that every severe financial panic has been 

 closely associated with a protracted period of deficient rainfall, and 

 there has been no period of protracted drought without a severe 

 financial panic except a period, the effects of which were masked by the 

 large disturbances attending our civil war. Hence, it is difficult to 

 avoid the conviction that periods of deficient rainfall are the para- 

 mount causes of the periods of commercial distress, especially when 

 the means by which the two are connected are so reasonable. 



As another link in the chain of causation, it is interesting to trace 

 the coincidences between the periods of deficient rainfall, deficient food 

 supply and financial panics and the subsequent changes in political life. 



Concerning the panic of 1837, I quote the following from a cur- 

 rent history, "The panic of 1837 was a severe blow to Van Buren and 

 his party. A slight return of the panic in 1839 completed the work; 

 and though his party stood manfully by him and renominated him for 

 the presidency, he was defeated by the Whigs . . . like Jackson, 

 on a wave of enthusiasm, 'Tippecanoe and Tyler too' were trium- 

 phantly elected."* 



In the presidential election following the financial panic of 1857, 

 that of 1860, the Democratic party which had previously been in 

 power was disorganized and broken into factions, and the new Eepub- 

 lican party sprang triumphantly into power. However, it is probable 

 that the great issue of slavery had a large share in these occurrences. 



The first national election after the financial panic of 1873 was 

 that of 1874, when the Eepublican majority of 107 in the House of 

 Representatives was turned into a Democratic majority of 74, and two 

 years later the Democratic party failed in obtaining the presidency 

 only by the narrowest margin, although the country at the previous 

 presidential election had been overwhelmingly Eepublican. 



The political effects following the commercial crisis of 1893 to 1894 

 were very striking. The Democrats who were then in power, realizing 

 that they were held responsible for the commercial distress, abandoned 

 every important issue for which they had previously stood, and, even 

 repudiating their former leader and his opinions, nominated a new 

 leader, the champion of a new issue. But this in no way saved them 

 from overwhelming defeat at the next election. The marked disturb- 



'A History of the United States' by Allen C. Thomas, Boston, 1899. 



