FAKE WEATHER FORECASTS. 5°3 



FAKE WEATHER FORECASTS. 



By F. J. WALZ, B.S. 



DISTRICT FORECASTER U. S. WEATHER BUREAU, LOUISVILLE, K.Y. 



THAT the dissemination of erroneous predictions and false proph- 

 esies of any kind is always injurious is very evident. In every 

 community there are always many to believe and take fright at any 

 prediction of disaster, however baseless such a prediction may be. 

 Certain then it is that the publication of weather forecasts based on 

 theories, often little better than superstitious conjecture, especially 

 when these forecasts attempt a prediction of atmospheric phenomena 

 of a dangerous and damaging character, such as severe storms, floods 

 and droughts, is an injury to the public interest. 



In our day and generation there are so-called long-range weather 

 forecasters, who persist in their efforts to foist their predictions upon 

 the public for personal gain. Too often they receive liberal compensa- 

 tion for their absurd predictions, thus preying upon the credulity of 

 the public. It is mainly to help to counteract this growing tendency 

 by explaining their methods and theories that this article has been 

 prepared. 



All times and all peoples have had their weather prophets. No 

 factor among the forces of nature influences man's temporal well-being 

 more than weather and climate, and hence the changes in weather con- 

 ditions have been carefully studied from the earliest times, and attempts 

 made to account for their causes, and thus be able to foresee them. 

 The appearances which were found by experience to precede weather 

 changes have been noted from time to time, and these have given rise 

 to many weather proverbs, many of which are the result of close ob- 

 servations by those compelled to be on the alert, and hence are based 

 in part upon true atmospheric conditions. 



It was but natural that, in the lookout for weather signs, men 

 should have studiously scanned the heavens, and have associated the 

 celestial bodies with changes in the weather, often erroneously, as 

 causation. Thus astronomy has been closely associated in the popular 

 mind with meteorology. This has taken such deep root that even to- 

 day a weather observer and prognosticator is to a large extent popularly 

 associated with telescopes and the celestial sphere. This may account 

 for the ease with which so many people can be gulled by weather pre- 

 dictions pretendedly based upon the influence of the planets. Meteor- 



