FAKE WEATHER FORECASTS. 5°9 



It was noticed that the period of 11.86 years of the planet Jupiter 

 to make the complete revolution in his orbit was so near an agreement 

 with the sun spot period of 11.11 years that the coincidence suggested 

 the possibility that Jupiter and the other planets might be the cause, 

 or at least an influence, in the sun spots. However, nothing was satis- 

 factorily demonstrated. "The planetary system represents so many 

 periodic relations as to render it almost certain that any periodic 

 changes in the sun's condition may be associated statistically with some 

 period of planetary motion." 



Now among those casting about for a great cycle was Mr. Tice. 

 He had worked out to his own satisfaction that some meteorological 

 phenomena were periodic, and concluded all were, and so set out to 

 establish a great meteorological cycle, which would be the key for ex- 

 plaining all atmospheric phenomena. By an arrangement of meteor- 

 ological tables, juggling with meteorological statistics, and smoothing 

 out irregularities through resorting to averages, thus obliterating all 

 individual phenomena, he arrived at an average period of 11.83 years. 

 This he at once adopted as the wonder-working meteorological cycle. 

 Naturally, of course, the near agreement of this with Jupiter's period 

 of 11.86 years, and the sun spot period of 11.11 years, caught his atten- 

 tion. He jumps to the conclusion that Jupiter is the main cause of 

 the sun spot period, the earth and the other planets helping. In this 

 conclusion he entirely ignores the difference of .75 years, and that this 

 difference is sufficient to change agreement into total disagreement in 

 five or sis periods. To fit its great cycle into this foundation he must 

 have some starting point, and so he must know when, or in what part 

 of his great orbit, Jupiter exercises the greatest influence in producing 

 sun spots. 



It has generally been believed that the weather about the equinoctial 

 period, when the sun is in the plane of the equator, is very unsettled, 

 and that there always occur the so-called equinoctial storms. That 

 storms are more frequent, more violent, or occur with any more regu- 

 larity at these seasons than any other is certainly not shown in estab- 

 lished weather records. Still, there seemed enough truth in it for 

 Mr. Tice, and so he assumes as undeniable (1) that the earth and at- 

 mosphere at the equinoxes always undergo an intense electric disturb- 

 ance, and (2) that this disturbance extends to and affects the sun, and 

 through the sun the other planets. He assumes these notwithstanding 

 no maximum of sun spots is in evidence during the equinoctial months. 

 Eeasoning from this unproved hypothesis, he comes to the conclu- 

 sion through tables of statistics giving (1) the dates of maximum sun 

 spot frequency; (2) dates of Jupiter's aphelion; and (3) and (4) his 

 own dates of the major and minor equinoxes of Jupiter, that Jwpiter's 

 equinoxes are the immense influence. (These tables never proved any- 



