5 i2 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



The main reason why Vulcan, or some uncertain planet, became so 

 essential to the theory, was the fact that the planets in sight, though 

 seemingly so well trained, far too frequently disagreed with the develop- 

 ment and movement of cyclonic and anti-cyclonic areas over the field 

 of systematic meteorological observations, and as these are the disturb- 

 ances in the atmosphere which bring the variation in weather during 

 the several seasons, something heroic was needed. 



To his own satisfaction Mr. Tice established that Vulcan was a 

 planet of gigantic size. He also assigns him a period of revolution 

 around the sun of forty-six days, and sets the dates of his equinoxes — 

 all essential to his planetary theory. Thus with a terrible Vulcan 

 equinox every twenty-three days of from seven to eleven days' duration, 

 and the aid of the equinoxes of a half dozen other planets, it is made 

 possible to account for about everything under the sun. There is con- 

 siderable uncertainty and confusion as to the energy of Vulcan's influ- 

 ence at his equinoxes ; but as Professor Woodward concludes, " I infer it 

 is immense when immense energy is exhibited and not noticeable when 

 none is noticed — in fact, it depends upon the weather." 



A good deal more might be said from a meteorological standpoint 

 to controvert this theory, but I think I have given sufficient to show 

 the absolute untrustworthiness of such a system in predetermining 

 weather. Astronomers have no faith in the astronomical work, as- 

 sumptions and deductions, and meteorologists certainly as little in the 

 meteorological part. Neither part stood the test of critical investiga- 

 tion. It is believed that Mr. Tice was conscientious and honest in his 

 investigation and theories, but that he was over-enthusiastic and ambi- 

 tious, and could only see things as he wished to see them. Not so 

 much can be said of some of his present-day disciples. 



Some of our long-range weather forecasters base their predictions 

 entirely upon tabulated weather statistics, with averages and departures, 

 from which they believe they have discovered cycles and recurring 

 weather changes and conditions. But their conclusions will not stand 

 critical investigation, and their forecasts are of so general a nature as 

 to be absolutely without value. 



Nearly all the modern ' long-range ' weather forecasters rely to a 

 large extent upon the weather reports of established weather bureaus, 

 and a mighty howl goes up whenever these reports are withheld from 

 them. 



I have reviewed most of the popular weather prognostication sys- 

 tems, but as yet have said nothing of the methods used by the U. S. 

 Weather Bureau. To tell these would take many chapters, and would 

 be a history of modern meteorology as revealed and built up during the 

 past century. The Weather Bureau has taken, and ever stands ready 

 to take, the best that scientific minds and training and scientific re- 



