762 



FOFULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



THE PROPORTION OF CHILDREN 

 IN THE UNITED STATES. 



The Bureau of the Census has is- 

 sued a bulletin on the proportion of 

 children in the United States, con- 

 taining valuable statistics secured at 

 the last census and a discussion by 

 Professor Walter F. Willcox, of Cor- 

 nell University. There is unfortu- 

 natelv verv little exact knowledge con- 

 cerning the birth rate or the size of 

 families in the United States; but in 

 some ways the proportion of children 

 to the total population or to the num- 

 ber of women of child-bearing age is 

 more significant than the birth rate. 

 The birth rate, which is usually given 

 as the number of births each year per 

 thousand population, is only significant 

 when taken in connection with the 

 death rate. The birth rate has been 

 steadily decreasing in all civilized 

 countries, and most rapidly in the 

 countries that are regarded as the 

 most civilized, but at the same time 

 the death rate has been decreasing 

 nearly in same proportion, so that the 

 increase of population per thousand in- 

 habitants has remained nearly station- 

 ary in recent decades. But these, fig- 

 ures require further analysis. In so 

 far as the decreased death rate is due 

 to the saving of the lives of healthy 

 infants, it can to real advantage sup- 

 plement the decreasing birth rate. In 

 so far, however, as the decreasing death 

 rate is due to the prolongation of life 

 beyond the age at which children are 

 likely to be born, or in so far as it is 

 due to saving the lives of children who 

 are constitutionally feeble, the result 

 in the next generation will be a sharp 

 decline in the birth rate without any 

 further decrease in the death rate. 

 The size of family again is not signifi- 

 cant unless taken in connection with 

 the number of children that survive 

 and the proportion of people who are 

 married. 



The number of children under five 

 years of age compared with the num- 

 ber of women from fifteen to forty-nine 

 years of age is given in the census, 



and these figures are perhaps as simple 

 and convenient as any for the study of 

 changes in the fertility of the popula- 

 tion. They should, however, be corre- 

 lated with the birth rate and death 

 rate and the size of family, and re- 

 quire further analysis, immigration 

 and alteration in the frequency of 

 death at different ages being compli- 

 cating factors. The bulletin shows 

 that at the beginning of the nineteenth 

 century the children under 10 years of 

 age constituted one third and at the 

 end less than one fourth of the total 

 population. The decrease in this pro- 

 portion began as early as the decade 

 1S10 to 1820, and continued uninter- 

 ruptedly, though at varying rates, in 

 each successive decade. This of itself, 

 however, is not enough to prove a de- 

 clining birth rate, as the decrease in 

 the proportion of children in the total 

 population may indicate merely an in- 

 crease in the average duration of life 

 and the consequent survival of a larger 

 number of adults. 



But by taking the proportion of 

 children to women of child-bearing age 

 we are able to get a more satisfactory 

 index of the movement of the birth 

 rate. Between 1850 and 1860, the 

 earliest decade for which figures can be 

 obtained, this proportion increased. 

 But since 1860 it has decreased with- 

 out interruption. The decrease has 

 been very unequal from decade to de- 

 cade, but if twenty-year periods are 

 considered, it has been very regular. 

 In 1860 the number of children under 

 5 years of age to 1,000 women 15 to 

 49 years of age was 634; in 1900 it 

 was only 474. In other words, the 

 proportion of children to potential 

 mothers in 1900 was only three fourths 

 as large as in 1860. One is thus led to 

 the conclusion that there has been a 

 persistent decline in the birth rate 

 since 1860. 



A comparison is made between the 

 proportion of children born of native 

 mothers to 1,000 native women of 

 child-bearing age and the proportion of 

 children born of foreign-born mothers 



