28o MEMORIES OF MY LIFE 



order of their estimated merit were marched to the 

 middle of the hall to the tune of the "Conquering 

 Hero," and received their costly prizes in the form of 

 athletic groups in gold, silver, or bronze. 



The point that especially interested me was that 

 I had done my best to form just decisions of my 

 own, and that I had already selected those who came 

 second and third as among the best three. But I 

 had wrongly classed the first prizeman. However, 

 after the judges had made their award I recognised 

 the superior justness of their estimate to my own. 

 The power of classifying men correctly, by mere 

 inspection, seemed to me much greater after this 

 experience than before. 



A little more than a year ago, I happened to be at 

 Plymouth, and was interested in a Cattle exhibition, 

 where a visitor could purchase a stamped and 

 numbered ticket for sixpence, which qualified him to 

 become a candidate in a weight-judging competition. 

 An ox was selected, and each of about eight hundred 

 candidates wrote his name and address on his ticket, 

 together with his estimate of what the beast would 

 weigh when killed and " dressed " by the butcher. 

 The most successful of them gained prizes. The result 

 of these estimates was analogous, under reservation, 

 to the votes given by a democracy, and it seemed 

 likely to be instructive to learn how votes were dis- 

 tributed on this occasion, and the value of the result. 

 So I procured a loan of the cards after the ceremony 

 was past, and worked them out in a memoir published 

 in Nature [177-8]. It appeared that in this instance 

 the vox populi was correct to within 1 per cent, of the 

 real value ; it was 1207 pounds instead of 1 198 pounds, 



