MISCONCEPTIONS CONCERNING THE WEATHER 131 



est to the psychologist, and it remains for the meteorologist simply to 

 prove that the notions have no basis in fact. When one plots the 

 seasonal or the annual temperatures or snowfalls, or any other elements 

 of climate, using reliable records as far back as they are available, it is 

 apparent that the curves show no appreciable change of climate within 

 the life of any man now living. The explanation for fallacies of this 

 nature must be given in terms of psychology. Present winters do not 

 seem to be as severe as " old-fashioned winters " because of better housing 

 and heating conditions, more efficient clothing, improved methods of 

 transportation, with multiplied comforts and conveniences. The retired 

 farmer living in a steam-heated city apartment building in which there 

 are double windows is apt to exaggerate the severity of past winters 

 when he may possibly have seen the snow drift through cracks in a log 

 house. Moreover, a snowfall of three feet looks considerably deeper to 

 a boy four feet tall than it does to him when he becomes a man six feet 

 in height. 



There is no known relation between the weather of one season or 

 year with that of the following season or year, various opinions to the 

 contrary, notwithstanding. The records of the Weather Bureau do not 

 show that a relatively dry spring is followed by an unusually hot sum- 

 mer, or that an abnormally cool autumn is followed by a severely cold 

 winter. Neither can it be shown that cold years or warm years occur in 

 groups of two or three, as is sometimes maintained. While well-marked 

 cycles are recognized in various solar disturbances, particularly sunspots, 

 there is no similar cycle apparent in the weather of seasons or of yei rs. 

 If there are cycles in the weather they must be measured in terms ^f 

 tenths of units, and they are therefore of no practical importance. 



Neither is there any indisputable connection between the weather 

 of one day and that of subsequent weeks or of seasons. Tradition has it 

 that the presence or absence of sunshine on Groundhog Day, February 2, 

 determines whether or not winter conditions shall continue during the 

 following six weeks ; that a showery Easter Sunday is followed by seven 

 showery Sundays; and that a rainy St. Swithin's Day, July 15, portends 

 forty consecutive days of rainfall. No basis can be found for these tra- 

 ditions in available records. True it is that springlike conditions come 

 considerably earlier some years than during other years, but such condi- 

 tions are not related to the weather of February 2. Moreover, spring 

 and summer are the seasons of greatest and most frequent rainfall over 

 the central portion of the United States, but the frequency of rain is 

 not related to the conditions prevailing on Easter Sunday or on July 15. 



In the use of the terms cyclone and tornado there is considerable 

 confusion, and the terms are used indiscriminately. As used by the 

 Weather Bureau the term cyclone refers to an area of low barometric 

 pressure with winds blowing counter-clockwise and spirally inward 



