THE 



POPULAR SCIENCE 



MONTHLY. 



APRIL, 1915 



AMERICAN" ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PEOBLEMS ARISING 



OUT OF THE WARi 



THE TREND OF AMERICAN VITALITY 



By LOUIS I. DUBLIN, Ph.D. 



STATISTICIAN, JIETEOPOLITAN LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, NEW YORK 



THE trend of American vitality could best be determined by com- 

 paring a series of life tables for tbe last three or four decades. 

 These would tell us whether the expectation of life at each age had 

 increased or decreased during this period; but, unfortunately, no such 

 tables are at hand. We are only now beginning to realize the value of 

 such statistical devices for measuring our vital resources. The Federal 

 Bureau of the Census is for the first time engaged in preparing com- 

 prehensive life tables. These will, we hope, give us fundamental data 

 on American life expectancy in the registration area. For the country 

 as a whole, nothing worthy of consideration will be available until our 

 vital statistics have been much improved and the registration area ex- 

 tended to include all the states. 



Our analysis will, therefore, be at best inadequate and incomplete. 

 "We have, in the first place, a few life tables for some cities and states 

 which tend to show the trend of vitality in these places. The New 

 York City tables for the period 1909 to 1911, for example, indicate that 

 the probable span of life for children under five has been extended by 

 about ten years since the earlier tables for the period 1879 to 1881 

 were prepared. The improvement in life expectancy continues until 

 about age 35. From this age onward the expectation becomes reduced. 

 In Massachusetts, the reduction in the expectation of life has occurred 

 at an even earlier age. Life tables for a few other states show similar 



1 A series of papers presented before the Section for Social and Economic 

 Science of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at a meet- 

 ing in Philadelphia on December 29, 1914, arranged by the Secretary of the 

 Section, Seymour C. Loomis, 



VOL. LXXXVI. — 22. 



