334 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



received from time to time, that early estimates of a total cost for the 

 war of fifteen billions of dollars for one year were not excessive. As 

 the war has already lasted six months, there is little doubt that at least 

 this sum would be consumed, even if peace should be made soon, be- 

 cause the armies could not be immediately disbanded and large con- 

 tract obligations would, for some time, have to be met. 



The amount usually available for investment in securities having a 

 general market is shown by the computations of the Belgian financial 

 publication, Le Moniteur des Interets Materiels, to be about $4,000,- 

 000,000 per year. This does not represent the entire sum of savings 

 applied to the improvement and extension of private enterprises, some 

 of which is represented by securities which are closely held, and some 

 of which does not take the form of securities at all. 



In dealing with the question how large a proportion of the total 

 fund of capital available for investment will be absorbed by war loans, 

 and how much can be diverted to its old mission of building up and 

 extending the machinery of industry, there are many factors to be con- 

 sidered on both sides of the problem. Undoubtedly the patriotic spirit 

 of the peasant, the mechanic and the small shop-keeper in France, 

 Germany and England will lead them to dip into their little hoards of 

 actual currency and other savings to make subscriptions to the national 

 loans in amounts which would not be applied ordinarily to the purchase 

 of railway and industrial issues. Undoubtedly, also, many sums which 

 would be applied to improving and extending the facilities of the farm, 

 the tool-box and the shop, will be applied to the purpose of saving the 

 national credit and meeting the public obligations. From these sources 

 will come considerable amounts which will be added to the net fund 

 available for investment. 



On the other hand, it can not be assumed that the entire amount 

 which is available for investment will be applied to the new public 

 loans. Where new capital issues are made essentially for keeping pace 

 with industrial development, for enlarging mills whose product is in 

 increased demand, and especially for meeting the growth of equip- 

 ment for new population in the countries which have not been deci- 

 mated by war, considerable sums will be applied to investments other 

 than the national loans. This will be especially true of those small and 

 closely-held corporations whose securities are distributed among the 

 original holders and where the direct profit on the output makes the 

 market rate for money a factor more or less negligible. 



What part the railways will be able to play in wresting a portion of 

 the world's savings from the outstretched hands of the powers which 

 have been blowing away thousands of millions in powder and ball, 

 becomes an interesting consideration. They must come into the open 

 market and bid against the greatest states in the world for some scanty 

 portion of the supply of investment capital. 



