374 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



although giving preference, in the matter of customs duties, to English 

 products, are large, growing, and in many respects safer than the Latin- 

 American fields of endeavor. 



There is, however, a great economic problem which may be solved 

 to the advantage of this country by prompt but conservative action in 

 connection with the development of bur trade with South America. It 

 is possible that this country may replace England and Germany in the 

 growth of South America to an extent greater than is possible in other 

 parts of the world, but this can only be accomplished if the United 

 States takes a greater financial interest in the development of South 

 America's resources. In other words, we must become larger creditors 

 of the countries to the south of us if we hope to retain the trade which 

 may be temporarily forced into our hands under the stress of unusual 

 circumstances arising from the present European conflict. 



The total trade of the twenty Latin-American Eepublics amounts 

 to about three thousand million dollars, approximately one half of which 

 consists of exports and one half of imports, under normal conditions, 

 the exports exceeding imports by about two hundred million. We al- 

 ready predominate in the combined trade of ten of these republics. 

 In the trade of the ten countries in South America we stand third, 

 ranking very close to Germany in exports to, and second to England 

 in imports from them. We buy from them fourteen million dollars' 

 worth more than Germany buys. Our purchases from these countries 

 exceeds Germany's sales by sixty million and our ovm sales by about 

 ninety million. Great Britain's sales top ours by 120 million, exceed- 

 ing her own purchases by twenty-seven million. We are the only one 

 of the three nations which buys from them more than we sell. Our 

 large purchases of rubber and coffee from Brazil are mainly responsible 

 for this condition. 



It is with no desire to belittle the importance of this trade that I 

 express the fear that we may be overshadowing the possibilities of other 

 markets through disproportionate attention paid to those of South 

 America. For immediate results and greater certainty of securing pay- 

 ment for what we sell, I believe that some of the European countries, 

 including Great Britain, who has been a purchaser of German goods to 

 the amount of some 350 million dollars annually, and the British 

 Colonies, offer greater immediate inducements and better possibilities 

 of increasing our trade along lines of the least resistance. 



Australia, for instance, buys from Germany about thirty-five million 

 dollars' worth each year. These and other markets are too important 

 to be lost sight of through over attention to those of South America. 

 At least there is no valid reason why we should reject a good fat trout 

 or two because we are fishing for eels. 



I want to say a few words regarding the use of official statistics in 

 3stimating foreign trade possibilities and prospects. Before we had re- 



