FUTURE BANKING PROBLEMS 393 



"We are now in a more cheerful frame of mind. On every side one 

 hears the hope expressed that we have passed through the worst of the 

 effects of the European war. It was inevitable that the sudden out- 

 break of the struggle, coming without warning, should disorganize the 

 machinery of production, and cause universal hesitation, retrenchment 

 and caution. It is argued that the American business man has had an 

 opportunity to survey the situation, to ascertain to what extent his 

 trade has been affected by the new conditions, and that now, after five 

 months of study, he is prepared to once again push forward along the 

 lines which have been least affected by the changed conditions. 



This more cheerful frame of mind is stimulated by the news leaders 

 in our daily press. Mr. Charles M. Schwab's alleged interview, in which 

 he asserted that there were over $300,000,000 of orders for war materi- 

 als in process of manufacture, has been given the greatest prominence. 

 Every mill which has received a contract or to which an inquiry, real or 

 alleged, has been directed concerning the sale or manufacture of 

 blankets, automobiles, cartridges, rifles, cannon, clothing, harness and 

 saddlery, oil, copper, and in fact the vast range of articles which are 

 being consumed in this struggle, has been given prominence. 



In spite of this optimism we must realize that in ISTew York City 

 over one hundred thousand men are out of work, while the army of 

 unemployed in the entire country is estimated by responsible observers 

 to be as high as one million in number. As Judge Gary, of the United 

 States Steel Corporation, has well said, the need for aid for the unem- 

 ployed is perhaps greater than the need of the sufferers in Belgium. 

 Xor does such a conclusion proceed from any failure to appreciate con- 

 ditions in the devastated regions. No one can understand the want or 

 misery which will afflict millions of deserving, thrifty people in Europe. 

 With the German casualty list much delayed, thereby minimizing the 

 totals of killed, wounded and missing; with France and Eussia unwil- 

 ling or unable to announce but a small fraction of their losses in men; 

 with the English losses largely to come, because only a small proportion 

 of the allied army has thus far been made up of her troops, the world 

 has yet to realize the tremendous destruction of workers which the war 

 has already entailed and which each additional day will bring. Any 

 estimate of this loss is at best but an approximation, but it seems likely 

 that the first six months of the war will involve a loss of life greater 

 than the entire loss on both sides in the four years of our civil war. 

 Sociologists and the medical profession will, for a generation, be in- 

 vestigating and reporting upon the consequences, direct and remote, 

 of the killing and maiming of such an enormous number of men. 



It is natural, under such circumstances, that popular attention 

 should give little or belated recognition to the tremendous losses in 

 property which have occurred and which will occur. Popular interest 

 seems to be chiefly concerned with the destruction of the architectural 



VOL. Lxxxvi. — 27. 



