394 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



monuments of the past. As to the destruction of factories, warehouses, 

 roads, bridges, farm buildings, and machinery, fences, dikes and canals, 

 but little attention has been given. 



We are appalled by the assertion that millions of Belgians are 

 homeless and without means of support, particularly when told that a 

 vessel load of food is needed every day to keep these people from actual 

 starvation. We are only beginning to realize that this tremendous toll 

 upon the charity of the world, largely upon the United States, must 

 continue for many months, because the means by which this population 

 can earn its own living have, to a large extent, vanished through the 

 destruction of the agencies of production. Thus far we have heard 

 little of the needs and condition of northern France in which a popula- 

 tion almost as large, ordinarily finds employment, and where the de- 

 struction of projDerty must have been fully as great. 



We think of the losses and cost of the war as involving only the 

 expenses of the belligerent governments, and yet this is the smaller 

 part of the permanent drain upon the world. If the war should cease 

 to-day, the belligerent nations would be solvent and could carry the 

 enormous burden of debt which they have been forced to assume. The 

 greatest loss, the suffering, privation and disorganization will come to 

 the people of those districts over which the armies have tramped. 



Lord Kitchener tells us that the war will take at least three years, 

 if it is fought to a finish: there is no reason to presume that this 

 estimate is not correct. A finish, as he views it, involves the gradual 

 wearing out of Germany; the pressing back of her armies until they 

 are forced to surrender at the gates of Berlin. If his hopes are re- 

 alized, the losses of the war will be tremendously increased, for the 

 path of ruin and devastation will reverse its course and Germany will, 

 at the end of the struggle, be fully as devasted as are Belgium and 

 northern France to-day. 



It is folly for any one, at this stage, to estimate the effect of the 

 war upon American business and American financial conditions. From 

 the few illustrative facts which I have set forth above, it is apparent 

 that the duration of the war and the extent of its devastation will to a 

 large degree, determine the effect of the conflict upon us. It has been 

 apparent to every one that the duration of the struggle will directly 

 affect its cost. The greater the cost, the larger the sacrifices which 

 must be made, and the larger these sacrifices, the more profound will 

 be the effect of the war upon neutral nations. We must bear in mind 

 that the ability of the nations of Europe to bear the financial burdens 

 of the war depends upon the extent to which their territory is ravaged 

 and their lands, buildings and public works destroyed. 



The governmental expenditures of the war, in so far as intelligent 

 estimates can be made at this time, are running at the rate of $20,000,- 

 000,000 a year. The investment in new securities by the people of the 



