294 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



lief ; while in Great Britain the condition of trade and industry has un- 

 interruptedly been regarded, since 1882-'83, with great anxiety. There 

 is a very general agreement of opinion in England and on the Continent 

 of Europe that the years 1879, 1885, and 1886 were the worst that have 

 been experienced in the period commencing with 1873. In England, 

 France, and Germany, the increase or decrease in exports is popularly 

 regarded as an indication of the condition of business, and assuming 

 100 to represent the exports for 1883, the decline in the value of the 

 exports of these several countries since that year may be represented 

 as follows : England, 1883, 100 ; 1884, 92-2 ; 1885, 88-5, a falling off 

 in two years of 11*2 per cent. The record of France is better 1883, 

 100 ; 1884, 93-1 ; 1885, 92-3, a falling off of 7*7 per cent ; while Ger- 

 many falls behind both countries : 1882, 100 ; 1883, 98 ; 1884, 89 ; 

 1885, 87*5, a falling off of 12-5 per cent. 



One point of interest which is here specially worthy of note from 

 its bearing on the discussion of causes, is that the recurrence of the 

 period of depression in 1882, after the favorable reaction which oc- 

 curred to a greater or less extent in 1879, was quiet and gradual, as if 

 matters were naturally again assuming a normal condition, and was not 

 preceded or accompanied by any marked financial or commercial dis- 

 turbances. On the contrary, the money markets of the world remained 

 " easy," and were characterized, as they have ever since been, by a 

 plethora of capital seeking investment and a low rate of interest ; so 

 that the economic disturbance since 1882 has been mainly in the nature 

 of a depression of industry, with a renewed and remarkable decline 

 of prices ; with absolutely no decline, but rather an increase in the 

 volume of trade, and certainly no falling off in production, as com- 

 pared with the figures of 1880 and 1881, which years in the United 

 States, and to some extent in other countries, were regarded as 

 prosperous. 



The following presentation, chronologically arranged, of brief ex- 

 tracts from various publications since 1872-'73, will further assist to 

 a recollection and comprehension of the course of events since that 

 period, and also exhibit the opinions which have been expressed at 

 different times, respecting the "influence," "causes," and duration of 

 the so-called " depression of trade and industry," by those who, by 

 position or investigation, have assumed to speak Avith more or less of 

 authority on the subject. And, with this intent, attention is first 

 asked to the following retrospect of the curious experience of the 

 iron and steel industry of the United States, as exhibited by quota- 

 tions from the reports of the American Iron and Steel Association from 

 1873 to 1887 : 



1873. The year 1872 opened with an increased demand for iron in nearly all 

 civilized countries. Prices advanced rapidly in all markets. The supply was un- 

 equal to the demand, although production was everywhere stimulated. In the 

 United States forty new blast-furnaces were erected, and the erection of others 





