THE PANAMA CANAL. 331 



perienced by commerce being for 1866, $50,000,000, would be for 

 1876, $100,000,000 ; and for 1886, $200,000,000. According to this 

 computation, the annual loss to commerce at present is equivalent 

 to the cost of the Panama Canal as estimated by the Paris Con- 

 gress. Every year, if we may assume the above data, money enough 

 is wasted because we do not have a canal to build one ! Such a 

 calculation is, however, in excess of the truth. The computation 

 of Levasseur, the one adopted by the Paris Congress, that sixteen 

 years would be required to double the tonnage, is more moderate 

 and much more reliable. According to this, if the loss in 1866 may 

 be set down at $50,000,000, the loss in 1882 would be $100,000,000. 

 It is quite possible that the truth lies between the estimates of Levas- 

 seur and Davis. Over a page of Mr. Bigelow's report is devoted to 

 the estimates of a commercial journal of Paris, The " Revue-Gazette," 

 and these exceed the estimates of Levasseur. Authorities differ but 

 even estimates not among the highest show that some interoceanio 

 route for ships is one of the greatest commercial needs of our 

 times. 



It seems almost superfluous to ask for the indorsement of names to 

 an enterprise of such great utility ; but, as the testimony of experts 

 has weight with many minds, a few authorities of unquestioned com- 

 petence may be cited. Among such may be reckoned Admiral Am- 

 men. Appointed by General Grant one of a commission of three to 

 report upon the interoceanic question, he was subsequently sent by 

 our Government to represent it at the Congress of Paris. In his vol- 

 ume upon the interoceanic question, he observes that the result to 

 be attained is " the grandest that man is capable of achieving for the 

 amelioration of the commerce of the world." * 



Not less significant is the opinion of the late W. W. Evans, an Ameri- 

 can engineer of distinction. Of Mr. Evans, Admiral Ammen remarks, 

 in a recent publication, that his name is known all over the world. Mr. 

 Evans wrote in 1879 that this canal matter was " the most important 

 matter in the line of progress now before the world." f Such a state- 

 ment may perhaps lead us to ask, Does not the ascription to the canal 

 of such a preponderant influence connect itself with questions of inter- 

 national law ? Admiral Davis, in his report, already cited, quotes 

 from a writer, whose name he does not give, this statement, viz., that 

 the cutting of the Isthmus would prove " the mightiest event probably 

 in favor of the peaceful intercourse of nations which the physical 

 circumstances of the globe present." Assuming that it is desirable 

 that the peaceful intercourse of nations be promoted, another question 

 naturally presents itself : Would it be promoted or not by the estab- 

 lishment and recognition in the cases of Suez and Panama of the neu- 

 trality of these works ? This is not an occasion to discuss such a 



* "The American Interoceanic Ship-Canal Question," by Admiral Ammen, p. 6*7. 

 j- "Journal of the American Geographical Society for 1879," p. 144. 



